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Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Under the Spell of Indian Wells

Once again, it's time to gather in the desert.

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Traditionally, Indian Wells has been the event where the "upper crust" of the WTA tour snacks on tiny finger sandwiches with their crusts cut off with uniform perfection. For the most part, only the best players have risen above the fray in the first North American stop on the month-long, coast-to-coast "Sunshine Double" stretch that closes out the opening quarter of each season. Well, at least until last year.


2018's Indian Wells final was an odd bird, as it pitted an unseeded player (#44 Naomi Osaka) against the #20 seed (Dasha Kasatkina). They'd combined for a total of just one tour-level singles title, had never advanced beyond a slam Round of 16, and had only spent a handful of weeks in the Top 20 (all by the Russian, who only spent her first consecutive weeks there mid-way through last year's I.W. two-week run). It was a starkly different match-up than in nearly every other previous Indian Wells final since the tournament's inception in 1989. Since then, the vast majority of champions (and nearly all finalists) had won slam crowns, or at least reached slam finals or semis.

But, naturally, the "magically" predictive nature of the event would eventually prove to have legs once more. By the end of the season, Osaka had followed up her Indian Wells title with her maiden crown at the U.S. Open. Then she won the Australian Open, too, and became the first Asian singles #1 in January. Kasatkina finished '18 in the Top 10 for the first time, reached her first two slam QF in Paris and London, and increased her career Top 3 win total to eight by the end of Roland Garros (with all coming over a year and a half span).



Still, even after backing up their desert results, both Osaka and Kasatkina return to Indian Wells twelve months after what could be viewed as the igniting event of their career years with questions about their immediate futures. Both recently ended successful coaching relationships, Osaka with Sascha Bajin after an insanely good thirteen-month period, and Kasatkina with Philippe Dehaes after yet another slow start to a season after they were seemingly such a good match throughout '18 ("You're the Russian Wall!"). Osaka has officially added coach Jermaine Jenkins to her team as she undertakes the first title defense attempt of her career just weeks after she looked listless in her only post-AO match in Dubai. Kasatkina, now ranked #14, is still in something of a state of coaching flux as she faces the prospect of tumbling down the rankings if she can't soon reverse a slide that has so far produced a 2-5 mark in '19, with three losses to players ranked #95 or lower.



As Indian Wells set the course for the remainder of both finalists' 2018 seasons, might the same happen for 2019? For good or bad, much will be made of how Osaka and Kasatkina compete *this* year in the desert and what their ultimate result means about the decisions they've made, and for what comes next.

If not them, though, which two players might take their turns in the finalist hot seat? After all, success in Indian Wells is quite possibly more reflective of a player's potential -- past, present or future -- than any event all season long. Maybe even more so than a single deep run at a major. There are plenty of tennis stars in the draw just itching to be "born."

It's why what happens over the next two weeks is so important. This isn't a throw-away event. It's where the members of the upper crust, or those aspiring for such a standing, come with a healthy appetite and an inclination to make a scene. At least two women will leave California having satisfied both desires.

Stay tuned.





**INDIAN WELLS SINGLES FINALS**
=1989 Tier III; 1990-96 Tier II; 1997-2008 Tier I; 2009-present Premier Mandatory=
1989 Manuela Maleeva d. Jenny Byrne
1990 Martina Navratilova d. Helena Sukova
1991 Martina Navratilova d. Monica Seles
1992 Monica Seles d. Conchita Martinez
1993 Mary Joe Fernandez d. Amanda Coetzer
1994 Steffi Graf d. Amanda Coetzer
1995 Mary Joe Fernandez d Natasha Zvereva
1996 Steffi Graf d Conchita Martinez
1997 Lindsay Davenport d. Irina Spirlea
1998 Martina Hingis d. Lindsay Davenport
1999 Serena Williams d. Steffi Graf
2000 Lindsay Davenport d. Martina Hingis
2001 Serena Williams d. Kim Clijsters
2002 Daniela Hantuchova d. Martina Hingis
2003 Kim Clijsters d. Lindsay Davenport
2004 Justine Henin d. Lindsay Davenport
2005 Kim Clijsters d. Lindsay Davenport
2006 Maria Sharapova d. Elena Dementieva
2007 Daniela Hantuchova d. Svetlana Kuznetsova
2008 Ana Ivanovic d. Svetlana Kuznetsova
2009 Vera Zvonareva d. Ana Ivanovic
2010 Jelena Jankovic d. Caroline Wozniacki
2011 Caroline Wozniacki d. Marion Bartoli
2012 Victoria Azarenka d. Maria Sharapova
2013 Maria Sharapova d. Caroline Wozniacki
2014 Flavia Pennetta d. Aga Radwanska
2015 Simona Halep d. Jelena Jankovic
2016 Victoria Azarenka d. Serena Williams
2017 Elena Vesnina d. Svetlana Kuznetsova
2018 Naomi Osaka d. Dasha Kasatkina

**INDIAN WELLS DOUBLES FINALS**
1989 Mandlikova/Pam Shriver d. Fairbank/Rush-Magers
1990 Novotna/Sukova d. G.Fernandez/Navratilova
1991 FINAL RAINED OUT
1992 Kohde-Kilsch/Rehe d. Hetherington/Rinaldi
1993 Stubbs/Sukova d. Grossman/Hy
1994 Davenport/Raymond d. Bollegraf/Sukova
1995 Davenport/Raymond d. Savchenko Neiland/A.Sanchez
1996 Rubin/Schultz-McCarthy d. Halard/Tauziat
1997 Davenport/Zvereva d. Raymond/Tauziat
1998 Davenport/Zvereva d. Fusai/Tauziat
1999 Hingis/Kournikova d. MJ.Fernandez/Novotna
2000 Davenport/Morariu d. Kournikova/Zvereva
2001 Arendt/Sugiyama d. Ruano Pascual/Suarez
2002 Raymond/Stubbs d. Dementieva/Husarova
2003 Davenport/Raymond d. Clijsters/Sugiyama
2004 Ruano Pascual/Suarez d. Kuznetsova/Likhovtseva
2005 Ruano Pascual/Suarez d. Petrova/Shaughnessy
2006 Raymond/Stosur d. Ruano Pascual/Shaughnessy
2007 Raymond/Stosur d. Chan/Chan
2008 Safina/Vesnina d. Yan/Zheng
2009 Azarenka/Zvonareva d. Dulko/Peer
2010 Peschke/Srebotnik d. Petrova/Stosur
2011 Mirza/Vesnina d. Mattek-Sands/Shaughnessy
2012 Huber/Raymond d. Mirza/Vesnina
2013 Makarova/Vesnina d. Petrova/Srebotnik
2014 Hsieh/Peng d. C.Black/Mirza
2015 Hingis/Mirza d. Makarova/Vesnina
2016 Mattek-Sands/Vandeweghe d. Goerges/Ka.Pliskova
2017 L.Chan/Hingis d. Hradecka/Siniakova
2018 Hsieh/Strycova d. Makarova/Vesnina

**MOST INDIAN WELLS WS FINALS**
6...Lindsay Davenport (2-4)
3...Kim Clijsters (2-1)
3...Steffi Graf (2-1)
3...Maria Sharapova (2-1)
3...Serena Williams (2-1) *
3...Martina Hingis (1-2)
3...Caroline Wozniacki (1-2) *
3...Svetlana Kuznetsova (0-3)
2...Martina Navratilova (2-0)
2...Victoria Azarenka (2-0) *
2...Mary Joe Fernandez (2-0)
2...Daniela Hantuchova (2-0)
2...Ana Ivanovic (1-1)
2...Jelena Jankovic (1-1)
2...Monica Seles (1-1)
2...Amanda Coetzer (0-2)
2...Conchita Martinez (0-2)
--
* - in 2019 MD

**INDIAN WELLS...**
[champions w/o slam titles]
1989 Manuela Maleeva - reached slam SF
1993/95 Mary Joe Fernandez (2) - reached slam final
2002/07 Daniela Hantuchova (2) - reached slam SF
2009 Vera Zvonareva - reached slam final
2010 Jelena Jankovic - reached slam final, ranked #1
2017 Elena Vesnina - reached slam SF, ranked WD #1
[finalists w/o slam final]
1989 Manuela Maleeva - reached slam SF
1989 Jenny Byrne
1993/94 Amanda Coetzer (2) - reached slam SF
1997 Irina Spirlea - reached slam SF
2002/07 Daniela Hantuchova - reached slam SF
2018 Dasha Kasatkina

**INDIAN WELLS-MIAMI...**
[reached IW-Miami Finals]
1991 Monica Seles (L-W)
1994 Steffi Graf (W-W)
1996 Steffi Graf (W-W)
1999 Serena Williams (W-L)
2000 Lindsay Davenport (W-L)
2000 Martina Hingis (L-W)
2005 Kim Clijsters (W-W)
2006 Maria Sharapova (W-L)
2012 Maria Sharapova (L-L)
2013 Maria Sharapova (W-L)
2016 Victoria Azarenka (W-W)
[reached AO-IW-Miami Finals]
1991 Monica Seles (W-L-W)
1994 Steffi Graf (W-W-W)
2000 Lindsay Davenport (W-W-L)
2000 Martina Hingis (L-L-W)
2012 Maria Sharapova (L-L-L)






INDIAN WELLS, CALIFORNIA USA (Premier Mandatory/Hard)
'19 TOP SEEDS
WS: #1 Osaka, #2 Halep, #3 Kvitova, #4 Stephens
WD: #1 Krejcikova/Siniakova, #2 Babos/Mladenovic, #3 Hsieh/Strycova, #4 Melichar/Peschke
=======================================

Last year's tournaments had a momentous tone about it (a feeling that would only deepen with what Osaka would do later), as Serena Williams (out since the '17 AO) and Victoria Azarenka ('17 Wimbledon) returned from long absences, while those two appeared in a draw along with Maria Sharapova for the first time since the '16 AO. In the end, another former #1 -- Venus Williams -- outlasted them all with a semifinal run.



Serena (#10) and Vika (#48, fresh off a WD title in Acapulco -- her first of any kind since her I.W./Miami singles sweep in '16 before having a baby) are back this year, but Sharapova (#29) is out as she once again deals with lingering shoulder issues. Venus, now 38, returns, as well, having not reached another semi since her final four last March in the desert. Currently ranked #36, an early exit could prove to make the rest of '19 an uphill battle for a future Hall of Famer who already hasn't reached a final since the '17 WTA Finals.

Also back for another go at what proved to be a breakthrough event: Amanda Anisimova, who upset Petra Kvitova in '18 and this year reached the 4th Round in Melbourne (falling, wouldn't you know it, to Kvitova), and Danielle Collins, the recent AO semifinalist whose Round of 16 I.W. run preceded an even bigger semifinal result in Miami a few weeks later prior to her AO semi this season.

Kvitova leads the tour with three finals through the opening two months of the season, but to this point none of the twelve '19 singles champions have been able to double up for a second crown. So Indian Wells provides the opportunity for a number of players to begin to nose ahead of the field as we head into the meat of the tour schedule. 2017-18 #1 Simona Halep, now standing at #2, enters with fewer physical questions than she did a year ago when she was still recovering from her debilitating final run Down Under, yet still managed to reach the I.W. semifinals. 10-3 since the start of the Australian Open, Halep is seeking her first title since being a MP away from sweeping Montreal and Cincinnati during the tour's last big event North American stretch.


While '18 champ Osaka bucked the trend by winning her second major title one slam after picking up her first, only one I.W. champ has managed to defend the title -- Martina Navratilova in 1991. Meanwhile, last year's runner-up Kasatkina remains one of only two finalists (Jenny Byrne '89) to have never advanced as far as a slam semifinal.

How about this year? Well, we could get some early-round doozies, as Kvitova/V.Williams and S.Williams/Azarenka are on tap in potential 2nd Round match-ups, with Osaka/Collins, Wozniacki/Bencic and Muguruza/Serena-Vika in the 3rd.

Here's *one* version of how things might go...


=ROUND OF 16=
#23 Bencic d. #1 Osaka
#5 Ka.Pliskova d. #11 Sevastova
#3 Kvitova d. #15 Goerges
#9 Sabalenka d. #8 Kerber
#7 Bertens d. #10 S.Williams
(WC) Anisimova d. (WC) Andreescu
Yastremska d. #12 Barty
#2 Halep d. Kuzmova

=QF=
#5 Ka.Pliskova d. #23 Bencic
#9 Sabalenka d. #3 Kvitova
#7 Bertens d. (WC) Anisimova
#2 Halep d. Yastremska

=SF=
#5 Ka.Pliskova d. #9 Sabalenka
#7 Bertens d. #2 Halep

=FINAL=
#5 Ka.Pliskova d. #7 Bertens


=DOUBLES CHAMPIONS=
...the doubles draw isn't out yet. But, hmmm, in preferential order anyway...

1. #6 Stosur/Sh.Zhang (AUS/CHN)
2. #3 Hsieh/Strycova (TPE/CZE)
3. Chan/Chan (TPE/TPE)
4. #2 Babos/Mladenovic (HUN/FRA)
5. Makarova/?? (RUS/??) - probably either Hradecka or Gasparyan





Fun with Flags (or apparently Tennis Channel has hired away some of the crack ESPN staff with very little flag knowledge who also believe that Helen Wills-Moody was a Brit)...










All for now.
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