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Thursday, April 18, 2019

Fed Cup II Preview: The Time is Now



Speaking of...

Will Simona Halep author another Romanian sports milestone and carry the Swarmettes into a first-ever Fed Cup final, or will February's interruption of the Czech dynasty simply go to waste?


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In the wake of the Notre Dame fire, will the Pastries band together in Rouen before a French crowd on French soil (and maybe even get Kiki Mladenovic on the court at least once) on Easter weekend and return to the FC final?
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Will Ash Barty have to put the Aussie team on her back yet again Down Under to get Australia into its first final in twenty-six years, or will the Belarusian "dream team" move one step closer to taking care of *its* unfinished Fed Cup business?


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Entrusted with securing the dethroned champs' 2020 World Group spot, will the inexperienced "B"-team Czech Maidens rise or fall in the less-bright-than-usual April spotlight against a "de-fanged" Canadian squad?


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In Rinaldi They (Still) Trust... but are the Bannerettes' 2020 title hopes truly safe in the hands of an inconsistent Stephens and Keys, as well as a so-far-still-winless-in-Fed-Cup-competition Kenin?
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After a disastrous 1st Round tie vs. Belarus, can a band of four three-strong thirtysomething veterans (minus a now flu-ridden Angie Kerber) right the German Fed Cup ship against what is essentially a two one-woman Latvian squad in Riga (minus an injured Anastasija Sevastova)? [Or, "How one of the weekend's most intriguing ties became something far, far, less."]
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While such a thing seems never set to become common enough that they might become true FC contenders, will the Spaniards enjoy the *full* "A"-team experience enough this weekend to want to do it a few more times in 2020?


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In a battle of former Fed Cup powerhouses, will the Russians take another step back toward team relevance against the still-holding-on-by-their-will-and-clay-dust-stained-socks Italians in Moscow?
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Will the "everybody-eats" Japanese squad land a decisive blow to the Netherlands' sinking Fed Cup fortunes, sending the Dutch (Cinderella '16 semifinalists) back into zone play next year?
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Can the Brits finally put away their history of near misses vs. a Kazakh team looking to overcomes years of underachievement of its own?


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Will Dominika Cibulkova finally *play* in an FC tie for Slovakia (for the first time since '16), or will she continue to cede the "top dog" role to young Viktoria Kuzmova vs. a Brazilian team featuring a resurgent Beatriz Haddad and '19 FC Heart Award winner Carolina Alves?
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Let's have a closer look...







*WORLD GROUP SEMIFINALS*
Romania at France (Rouen, FRA - RCI)
ROU: Halep,Buzarnescu,Begu,Niculescu,Olaru (Capt: Florin Segarceanu)
FRA: Garcia,Parmentier,Cornet,Mladenovic,Ferro (Capt: Julien Benneteau)
...it says something about the state of Swarmette women's tennis for most of the last four decades or so that the only other FC meeting with France came all the way back in 1976, which is even more recent than Romania's only other previous semifinal appearance in 1973. The depth of talent of the current Romanian generation has been apparent for years, yet this is still the first time the dominoes have fallen just right to enable them to finally have a real shot at a title.

While one side is seeking a first ever final, France is going for a sixth overall but the first since the Captain/"Pasty Whisperer" Amelie Mauresmo-led renaissance that ended with a runner-up finish in 2016. Julien Benneteau stepped into the captain's role for the first time in February, leading a road upset of Belgium that welcomed back Caroline Garcia while also benching (per Benneteau's decision, make of it what you will) the bratty (to be kind) Kristina Mladenovic. Perhaps (belatedly, but advantageously) chagrined by her 1st Round status after personally attacking Garcia and others in the past for *not* playing Fed Cup, Mladenovic was uncharacteristically silent about it all, and has seen the better karma come back to her in recent weeks as she pulled off a win over #1 Naomi Osaka and just this week picked up Sascha Bajin as her new coach. But she's still the fourth-highest ranked player on this squad, so her full participation in this tie isn't necessarily a given. But the French, no matter how stoked they may be by a home crowd perhaps even more taken by a patriotic spirit after this week's devastating Notre Dame cathedral fire seventy miles away in Paris, are likely going to need Kiki to win. If not in singles, where Simona Halep (18-5 FC) returns to French clay for the first time since winning Roland Garros last year, then in a potential deciding doubles match.

Romania finished off the 1st Round upset of the Czech Republic with a DD win by Begu/Niculescu over the world's #1 duo of Krejcikova/Siniakova. Both Romanians will be present in Rouen, while Benneteau could find himself having to make the decision (likely decided by the interpersonal vibes he notes during the week) about whether Garcia & Mladenovic, RG champs before their ugly break-up, can reconcile enough to play side by side once again. It would have been a nationally affirming occurrence even *before* the past week in France, and unquestionably would qualify as such now.
PICK: ROU def. FRA 3-2 (dd)
...color me unsentimental, I guess.


Belarus at Australia (Brisbane, AUS - HCO)
BLR: Sabalenka,Sasnovich,Azarenka,Lapko.Marozava (Capt: Tatiana Poutchek)
AUS: Barty,Gavrilova,Stosur,Hon (Capt: Alicia Molik)
...no player on tour today was even alive the last time Australia won a Fed Cup title, and a large portion weren't even around when the nation last reached a final in 1993. Though small and with a largely unnotable tennis history (Vika Azarenka and Natalia Zvereva notwithstanding), Belarus is seeking a second final in three years as the nation once again brings together its "dream team" in an attempt to get what slipped through their fingers vs. the U.S. two years ago.

Ash Barty has legit bonafides to be considered the tour's Player of the Year so far in 2019, and one of the highlights of her season was having a hand in all three of Australia's points in a road win win over the Bannerettes in North Carolina, a performance that made her the 1st Round MVP of FC play (no matter that she lost out in the three-months-late fan-voted popularity contest that is the Heart Award to a certain beloved Romanian). With Dasha Gavrilova (1-3 in 2018-19 FC) a wholely unreliable "W" provider likely in the singles #2 slot, Barty (8-1/6-1 in FC) may have to go 3-for-3 again to take down the deep BLR squad. Priscilla Hon made her FC debut by winning the DD with Barty in February, but Captain Alicia Molik may have to make the decision about whether the duo gets a chance to pull off a sequel, or instead go with veteran Samantha Stosur (7-0 in FC doubles) who, should she be successful, would subsequently experience the greatest on-Aussie-soil moment of her tennis career.

Unless Barty can star again (and she might), the Belarusians surely have the goods to win here and again in the fall. Not many teams have the luxury of a former #1, two-time slam winner, and recent tour finalist (and, in 2019, a not-too-shabby doubles player... especially when teaming with Barty) on the bench as Captain Tatiana Poutchek does with Azarenka, 16-4 in FC, and with 13 consecutive s/d wins for BLR since 2011. Though Azarenka's retirement in the recent Monterrey final could limit her availability. Meanwhile, Aliaksandra Sasnovich, as always, stands in the shadows of the big name stars in this contest, but very well could be the "IT" factor when all is said and done.
PICK: AUS def. BLR 3-2 (dd)
...if the tie could turn on the titanic Barty/Sabalenka match-up, it's worth noting that the Belarusian won two of their three meetings in '18... but Barty got *her* win Down Under in Melbourne.





*WORLD GROUP PLAYOFFS*
Canada at Czech Republic (Prostejov, CZE - RCI)
CAN: Marino,Fernandez,Dabrowski,Fichman (Capt: Heidi El Tabakh)
CZE: Vondrousova,Muchova,Bouzkova,Safarova,Krejcikova (Capt: Petr Pala)
...Romania put an end to the Czechs' recent Fed Cup winning streak, and now the "B"-team has been given the far-less-spotlighted honor/chore of giving the team a chance to get back to the top step of the podium in 2020. Had the Canadian team traveling to Prostejov included the likes of '19 wunderkind Bianca Andreescu, Genie Bouchard (who saved the beaten-up team last April vs. UKR) and Franckie Abanda (whose best career moments have come in FC) the Maidens might have found their backs pressed firmly against the wall. But now, even while fielding a highly inexperienced team (save the retiring Lucie Safarova, who could end up being there only for support), it would be a shock to *not* see a second-level Czech domination this weekend that would avoid a stunning tumble out of the WG for the first time since '08.

Marketa Vondrousova (1-1 career) showed in '17 that she could be the future of Czech Fed Cup, and will get her turn in the driver's seat here as Karolina Muchova and Marie Bouzkova make their debuts, while Barbora Krejcikova's FC lone experience has come in the form of the deciding doubles loss vs. ROU that locked the team out of this weekend's semifinals. Rebecca Marino made her first FC appearance since 2011 by playing doubles in Canada's February tie, and now she finds herself in the #1 singles slot with a 16-year old junior (Leylah Annie Fernandez) and two players known mainly for their doubles work backing her up.
PICK: CZE def. CAN 3-0
...Canada's Fed Cup breakout will have to wait for 2020, while the Czechs reset the board for another run by the "A"-listers come next February. Anything other than this result would send a massive shockwave through next year's competition.


Switzerland at United States (San Antonio TX, USA - HCI)
SUI: Golubic,Bacsinszky,Perrin,In-Albon (Capt: Heinz Gunthardt)
USA: Stephens,Keys,Kenin,Pegula,Bardy (Capt: Kathy Rinaldi)
...two months after the U.S. squad's first opening round loss under her direction, Captain Kathy Rinaldi is back with the best roster in action in this weekend's WG Playoffs. It *should* be enough to return the '17 champs and '18 finalists to World Group play in 2020. That is, if the players who *should* be reliable turn out to be so.

This is one of those ties where the absence one player makes a world of difference. Without Belinda Bencic in action for the Swiss (0-8 vs. the Bannerettes in FC, but facing off for the first time since '93) in San Antonio, the U.S. is a huge favorite with a Top 10er and two '19 WTA title winners ready to go. But which versions of Sloane Stephens and Madison Keys will be deep-in-the-hearta? Stephens went 2-0 vs. France in last year's semis, after having gone 0-2 and nearly single handedly costing the Banneretes the title in the '17 final vs. BLR. Keys is the reigning Charleston champ, but she came up short in Asheville in February in a HAVE-TO-GET-IT-DONE match vs. Barty that put the U.S. behind the 8-ball in what turned out to be a home court defeat. Meanwhile, Rinaldi has continued to show confidence in the potential of Hobart champ/Acapulco finalist Sonya Kenin, but the youngster's grit and fight have *still* yet to produce even a lone Fed Cup match win. She's 0-3 and has perfected the art of playing well enough to lose in frustrating fashion. Kenin needs to give Rinaldi the present of a "W" -- should she get the chance, especially if either Stephens or Keys is playing on a short leash after a bad Day 1 -- for her captain's continued act of faith. Viktorija Golubic has proven that she can thrive on the FC level. She went 2-0 vs. the Czechs (def. Pliskova & Strycova) in the '16 semis, but she's been just 1-4 in FC competition since. Timea Bacsinszky is in her 27th career FC tie, but hasn't posted a singles win in team competition since splitting with Sabalenka and Sasnovich in the '17 semifinals.
PICK: USA def. SUI 3-0
...In Rinaldi They (Still) Trust, and in Sonya Kathy (Still) Trusts, too. If the U.S. can secure a 2-0 lead on Saturday, giving Kenin a chance to cliche the win for career point #1 on Sunday would be a very Rinaldian thing to do.


Germany at Latvia (Riga, LAT - HCI)
GER: Goerges,Petkovic,Barthel,Groenefeld (Capt: Jens Gerlach)
LAT: Ostapenko,Marcinkevic,Vismane,Spake (Capt: Adrians Zguns)
...this tie -- which will take place on Friday/Saturday rather than Saturday/Sunday -- got a lot less interesting mid-week when Angelique Kerber (flu) and Anastasija Sevastova (back) were pulled from the previously announced rosters. But, really, any tie that features Alona Ostapenko *and* Andrea Petkovic has the potential to be quite fun, especially as they'll open the competition by playing *against* each other. So here we go.

With Kerber and Sevastova, this might have been the hardest tie to call all weekend. Without either, it becomes something of an early spring referendum on Latvian Thunder. Can she carry the team, in both singles *and* doubles? If she (9-1 in FC from 2018-19) plays up to her singles abilities the Riga fans should be able to cheer a "live" tie into the deciding doubles, but it all could end there. Julia Goerges should be able to get Germany on the board in singles on an indoor hardcourt surface, but her 7-8 career FC mark, along with Petko's 1-6 record since 2016 and Kerber replacement Mona Barthel's virtually nonexistent FC history (just 1-1, without a singles match since 2013) doesn't exactly inspire loads of confidence, but the trio does provide Germany with multiple opportunities to secure a second singles win to force things to the doubles, and one can't rule out a *third* singles win over an error-prone Ostapenko that would allow them to bypass the doubles altogether. And if that match *is* played, the Germans would have the advantage with Anna-Lena Groenefeld teaming with a fellow veteran with everything on the line.
PICK: GER def. LAT 3-2 (dd)
...Heart Award nominee Sevastova's absence is bigger than Kerber's. Both Ostapenko and Sevastova have lifted their games, feeding off one another, in all the right places the last two years playing under the red-and-white flag. Without her running mate, Alona could be hung out to dry.


Spain at Belgium (Kortrijk, BEL - HCI)
ESP: Muguruza,Suarez Navarro,Bolsova Zadoinov,Garcia-Perez,Martinez Sanchez (Capt: Anabel Medina-Garrigues)
BEL: Van Uytvanck,Flipkens,Bonaventure,Wickmayer (Capt: Johan Van Herck)
...Belgium's February home tie vs. France turned into an abject disaster, and the seeds are there for the same thing to happen in Kortrijk. But at least this time the Belgian #1 (Elise Mertens) won't be around to watch Waffles get burnt to a crisp.

While an indoor hardcourt surface, to the liking of BEL singles #1 Alison Van Uytvanck, *does* give the home team a chance at turning the tables, it would likely take a 2-0 weekend from AVU as well as a deciding doubles win against a team that is pretty close to the best that Spain can offer. If only the Spaniards could field this sort of roster *all* the time, sprinkling in a few younger players such as Sara Sorribes Tormo, Paula Badosa and/or Rebeka Masarova (Aliona Bolsova gets the call up this time out) to a team well-captained by AMG and a run at a SF/F/W might not be out of the question. But the high-profile singles schedule of Muguruza (9-1 in FC) -- and to some degree, CSN too -- likely precludes such a reality, so this is the sort of week where Spain needs to bask in the daydream of unrequited hope. Georgina Garcia Perez put the ESP team on her back, Ash Barty-style, in February vs. Japan and earned a Heart Award nomination for her efforts. But will she even get on the court this weekend?
PICK: ESP def. BEL 3-1
...Muguruza is coming off a successful hard court title defense in Monterrey, and needs to extend her winning streak by two this weekend to keep the Waffles from even thinking about coloring outside the lines on this one. If she blinks, this Belgian team might not be the pushovers the one from two months ago turned out to be... and things could get real dicey real quick.




*WORLD GROUP II PLAYOFFS*
Italy at Russia (Moscow, RUS - RCI)
ITA: Giorgi,Trevisan,Paolini,Errani (Capt: Tathiana Garbin)
RUS: Kasatkina,Pavlyuchenkova,Potapova,Vikhlyantseva,Koval (Capt: Igor Andreev)
...this tie marks *the* official passing of former eras of Fed Cup dominance that reached their heights during the first decade and a half of the 2000s, as four-time champions Russia and Italy face off to see which will fall into zone play in 2020.

The Russians have been here before, having fallen into the zones a year ago with a loss at this same stage, and are (slowly) on the way back (seeking a WG II return in '20) with a new batch of young (though not as historically talented as the Original Hordettes) talent bubbling up over the last year. Italy, though, has somehow managed to narrowly avoid such a drop in recent seasons as the title-winning Italians have gradually retired and/or fallen off. The team hasn't participated in zone play since 1997, but that may change come next February. Kasatkina is the top Russian in play this weekend, but her woeful '19 campaign thus far could mean that the team's fate will rest on the shoulders of veteran Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. While Pavlyulchenkova often came up short under Captain/enabler Anastasia Myskina, she's so far been golden for Igor Andreev, going 3-1 the last two years (including 2-0 in zone play in February). Camila Giorgi returned to FC earlier this year for Italy, but was a disappointing 0-2. Meanwhile, Sara Errani is the last remaining member of the championship era, and is coming off a QF run in Bogota as a lucky loser.
PICK: RUS def. ITA 3-0
...after four titles from 2004-08, and 11/13 SF-or-better seasons from 2003-15, the Hordettes are inching back toward low-level relevance. But a return to the World Group (they were last seen there in a 1st Round loss in '16) seems a long way off, unless Kasatkina can rebuild and take on a Barty-like leadership role over a slew of players not much younger than she over the next few years. It's *possible*, but this is the first step in what would be a long-term "Prove It" test/process.


Netherlands at Japan (Osaka, JPN - HCO)
NED: Schoofs,Hogenkamp,Kerkhove,Schuurs (Capt: Paul Haarhuis)
JPN: Doi,Hibino,Nara,Hozumi,Aoyama (Capt: Toshihisa Tsuchihashi)
...the only presence of an "Osaka" in this tie is the name of the city in which it's being played. But that shouldn't have any impact on what will likely be a victorious weekend for the home team.

By all rights, Japan shouldn't even be here. It would be playing in the WG Playoffs if not for squandering what should have been a commanding lead vs. Spain in February. That said, the strength in numbers heavily favors Japan, which once again could see three or four players with a hand in producing a point (or, in a rare case with the expanded official rosters we've seen in '19, maybe even FIVE -- which would maybe be a FC record -- should three different players win singles matches, and the remaining two take a dead rubber doubles contest) . Meanwhile, the Dutch harbored FC title hopes three years ago, but it feels like a *lifetime* ago now. Since reaching the '16 semifinals with an upset of the Russians in the 1st Round (the squad's eighth straight win), Paul Haarhuis' freefalling team has lost four of five ties and could fall into zone play oblivion in '20 with a loss here (well, unless Kiki Bertens would choose to again become the FC Queen of old again... but at this stage in her career would she participate in zone play to make that happen?).
PICK: JPN def. NED 3-0 (or maybe 4-0?)
...if Osaka were ever a consistent presence, Japan would be formitable with the ability to come up with all sorts of singles/doubles combinations vs. teams with fewer than four or five-deep rosters capable of putting up "W's."


Kazakhstan at Great Britain (London, GBR - HCI)
KAZ: Putintseva,Diyas,Danilina,Voskoboeva (Capt: Dias Doskarayev)
GBR: Konta,Boulter,Watson,Dart,Swan (Capt: Anne Keothavong)
...well, *one* of these two teams is finally going to get over a big Fed Cup hump by the end of the weekend. It's just a matter of which one.

GBR has lost in the WG II Playoffs in 2012, '13, '17 and '18, while Kazakhstan has never even advanced to *this* point in the competition until now despite enough talent (Putintseva/Shvedova/Diyas/Voskoboeva and for a time, Karatantcheva) that always said that it *should* have happened long ago. Great Britain was a four-time FC finalist between 1967-81, but had little hope for another ladder-climbing stretch until the last few years. The current crop of Brits went 10-0 in February's Europe/Africa I zone play, but they went 11-1 in '17 and 8-0 a year ago only to lose at this stage, first in a heated confrontation with Romania (the one that got Ilie Nastase ejected and banned, and saw Halep fully step into her leadership role) two years ago and then in a deciding doubles showdown after having led 2-1 vs. Japan in '18. Even while slipping in the rankings, Johanna Konta has been at her best in FC play the last two years, and has won nine straight singles matches since losing to Halep in '17. In February, she dramatically went undefeated even while physically collapsing on more than one occasion, earning a Heart Award nomination in the process.
PICK: GBR def. KAZ 3-1
...Konta has been a workhorse in this hunt, while Boulter proved a strong #2 in the effort in February. This is by far the deepest and most talented British roster in multiple generations. It's time they had *something* to show for it. Finally, they will.


Brazil at Slovakia (Bratislava, SVK - RCI)
BRA: Haddad,Alves,Ce,Stefani,Pedretti (Capt: Roberta Burzagli)
SVK: Cibulkova,Kuzmova,AK.Schmiedlova,Rybarikova,Sramkova (Capt: Matej Liptak)
...the host Slovaks are the favorites here, but the majority of the roster consists of veterans often bedeviled by inconsistency and injury. With potentially Brazil's best female player in decades (Beatriz Haddad) finally healthy again, this one could prove to be more interesting than some might expect if things turn *a certain way.*

Slovakia won a FC title back in 2002, but despite enough talent to contend has only reached the SF stage once (2013) since then. They've only won back-to-back ties in the same season once since 2011. Some of this may come down to the usual status of Dominika Cibulkova, who has often been too injured to assume what should be a #1 singles role. Having not played a Fed Cup match since 2016, she's set to be #1 again in Bratislava. We shall see. In her absence, Viktoria Kuzmova has proven she can assume the lead role on the court (going 3-1 in '18, including a Sabalenka/Sasnovich sweep vs. BLR), but that hasn't prevented the nation's slide down the FC ladder. A loss here and SVK would fall to the zones for the first time since 2006. Brazil last played in the WG II Playoffs in '14, and this tie comes at an opportune time. Haddad, injured much of '18, has been resurgent on tour in recent weeks, and Carolina Alves is in the best form of her career, earning a Heart Award nomination for her zone play in February when she went 4-0.
PICK: SVK def. BRA 3-2 (dd)
...I'm a bit tempted to pick the upset here, but I'll settle for a still-somewhat-surprising (what with the relative difference in FC experience between the teams) nail biter that goes to the doubles as Kuzmova proves to be the difference.



Zone play has been going on at various sites the last few days, so I can't really preview anything there. But I can still post my initial picks!

*ZONE PLAY*
AMERICAS II
[Lima, PER - RCO)]
Bahamas,Barbados,Bolivia,Panana,Peru,Trinidad & Tobago
[Santo Domingo, DOM- HCI]
Cuba,Dominican Republic,Guam,Urugay,Venezuela
PROMOTIONAL PLAYOFF PICKS (2 advance): Bolivia and Venezuela


EUROPE/AFRICA III
[Helsinki, FIN - HCI]
Algeria,Congo,Cyprus,Finland,Iceland,Kosova,Lithuania,Macedonia,Malta
[Ulcinj, MNE- RCO]
Armenia,Egypt,Ireland,Kenya,Montenegro,Morocco,Norway
PROMOTIONAL PLAYOFF PICKS (2 advance): Lithuania and Norway



Of course, I'll have a full wrap-up of the entire Fed Cup event in the regular weekly post following all the weekend action, as well as the full "Fed Cup Captain Threat Level Chart."



All for now.
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