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Tuesday, May 28, 2019

RG.3- The Lost Treasure of Latvian Thunder

Two springs ago, Alona Ostapenko brought the thunder to Paris, as the Latvian not only went from teenager to 20-year old over the course of one Roland Garros, she transformed from unseeded newcomer into a grand slam champion on the leading edge of her impatient tennis generation's inevitable assault on the women's game.

But come 2019, and you often have to strain to hear even the lingering echo of what Latvian Thunder once promised to be.



In 2017, Ostapenko was an unstoppable force of nature in Paris. Firing 299 winners over seven rounds, she became the youngest woman to win RG in over two decades, the youngest slam winner in eleven, and the youngest first-time major champ in thirteen.

She was powerful. Exciting. Determined. Fearless. Unbowed and unbroken (other than occasionally on serve). Years ago, when boxer Mike Tyson spoke of an opponent, saying, "He punches like a f***ing mule kick," he was talking about Razor Ruddock, but the words could have easily applied to the laser shots that Ostapenko often saw fit to pummel *her* opponents with any given afternoon. She wasn't "perfect," but she was the sort of champion you *want*, not simply the sort of champion you often get. A visual hoot with jump-from-your-seat star power behind her groundstrokes, a sneaky smile (bordering on sinister, before breaking into a grin seconds later), and the proportional skill to lift all boats.

But, at some point, even the most shiny of objects must be polished in order to survive, and Ostapenko and her game have been in need of a spit shine (if not an overhaul, or at least a refurbishment) for a while now.

Granted, some of Ostapenko's post-2017 funk has been health related. She ended last year playing with a wrist injury that she later admitted she tried to come back too early from *this* season. And what of that old shoulder injury her mother noted *after* she won Roland Garros? Is Ostapenko even operating at full physical capacity? She surely seemed to be when she reached the Wimbledon QF a month after lifting La Coupe Lenglen, as well as when she played in the Miami final and Wimbledon semis in the first half of last season. If that's no longer the case it might explain *some* of what's happened since, to the tune of a slip from #5 early in '18 to #39 heading into this Roland Garros, not much better than the #47 standing she had when she won the title two years ago.

In her 1st Round match today against Victoria Azarenka, a player who knows something about about going through a proverbial wringer and struggling to find her way out the other end unscathed, Ostapenko was the same "lesser" version of the player we've often seen of late. She had huge difficulties holding serve, putting severe pressure on her return game to get breaks. Naturally, she was able to, as the match's first eight games saw the server come up on the short end. Azarenka's lone hold for 5-4 proved to be the difference, as she then broke the Latvian to claim the opening set.

Ostapenko broke for 3-2, then held for 4-2 in the 2nd, but wasn't consistent enough off the ground to make up for her more pressing liabilities. Azarenka soon led 5-4, and held two MP. Right on cue, Ostapenko's dramatic and exciting side chose then to resurface and push a more tentative Azarenka's back against the wall. She won six straight points and led love/30 at 5-5 on Vika' serve. She got the break for 6-5, and soon was within two points at 30/love of sending things to a 3rd set. Then four consecutive unforced errors -- including DF #16 -- squandered her comeback efforts and things went to a tie-break.

Azarenka's point streak reached six as she led 2-0 (one via Alona's 17th DF), but the Lavtian *still* managed to get the breaker back on serve at 3-3. But after having recent difficulties (here and in past events) closing out wins like the former #1-ranked Vika of old, Azarenka played more aggressively with the finish line in sight. Coming in to the net off a deep-in-the-court approach shot, she slammed a put-away forehand to reach MP again at 6-3. An Ostapenko error (naturally) finally brought an end to a fascinating, snow globe of a match pitting two former slam winners trying to find their way back to their preferred reality, with Azarenka taking the far bigger step with her 6-4/7-6(3) victory. It's her first MD win at Roland Garros since 2015, a drought that began with a controversial 3rd Round loss to Serena Williams that same year.




Azarenka will move on to face Naomi Osaka, seeking her first #1 win since since 2016. Meanwhile, Ostapenko has yet to win a match in Paris since she took home the title to Riga.

Ostapenko's 17 double-faults and 60 unforced errors (to 33 winners, vs. 12w/19ue from Azarenka) was another example of her being at least a co-author to her own demise. It's "helped" her to a 7-16 record in 2019, with multiple wins in just one event since last year's U.S. Open (she's 11-23 since her Wimbledon SF) and zero Top 10 wins since her Miami final run (after posting six in previous ten months, five vs. the Top 5) between then and the '17 RG.

Ostapenko's lack of a "Plan B" in her game has always been a lingering issue waiting to explode, hasn't it? The inconsistency has never helped, either. While a string of winners flying off her racket *is* exciting, the similar parade of unforced errors is just as, if not more, disheartening. The lack of a dependable serve (and a truly bad second service) is just often the rotten cherry on a melting sundae that no amount of flambéing with fiery winners and clenched fists can hide, nor justify.

The "well-worn" version of what used to pass as Latvian Thunder that we sometimes still see is capable of occasional "moments," as Ostapenko showed even today. But with nothing else to rely upon, such a course of action is difficult, if not impossible, to maintain for long. But we're talking about the first player from Generation PDQ to win a major, a player who is now getting passed by by players who'll never think to ever challenge for one. The "sure" top-level futures of some players with more thoughtful, fluid, *dependable* and variety-filled (at least "adjacent") games are leaving her in the dust. And not just that of the terre battue.

Her game just hasn't evolved as it *should* have by now, or even remained steady.

2017 can't have been a simple fluke. Ostapenko looked too good for too many matches, and followed her RG win up with other superior results on big stages -- even when not playing the "good edit" of her game that we watched in Paris -- for that to be the case. Not entirely, at least. No matter what some statistics might suggest.



Ostapenko's movement has never been anything particularly special, but it should still be able to be improved (see Sharapova, Pliskova, Kvitova and any number of other players whose taller frames should have made it more difficult for *them* to get better in that area than it should the Lavtian). Additionally, while she still often solely relies on her power off the ground to give her momentum on gameday, she's shown an ability to serve hard in the past (work on *that*), and her doubles success proves she's not fated to be simply a baseline-basher forever. She shouldn't need a virtual surgeon to perform exploratory surgery to find it within her and thereby allow Latvian Thunder to roam the land once more, this time with multiple weapons at her disposal.

No player on the WTA tour seems to be more in need of a guru, a new sets of eyes to help guide her game back into the light and to maybe even be better than it was before, than Ostapenko. Unfortunately, when one was on the market in recent months he didn't land on her team. Whether Sascha Baijin was pursued by the Latvian or not (and he said some big names came calling before he chose to go with Karmic Kiki Mladenovic), he *should* have been.

As she transformed at Roland Garros two years ago, Ostapenko needs to re-make herself in the guise of a detective seeking to root out tennis' version of such a problem-solver -- an as-yet-unnamed globetrotting fortune hunter who can find the Lost Treasure of Latvian Thunder -- until her mission is complete, no matter how many rocks and/or courtside umbrellas she needs to overturn to find them.

He or she -- a Thunder Whisperer, if you will -- *has* to be out there. Somewhere.

Please. Someone. Save the Thunder.




=DAY 3 NOTES=
...while Ostapenko has not yet mastered the art of turning back the tide in a match and remaking a "sure" loss into a solidifying win (at least not on a regular basis), world #1 Naomi Osaka has. Maybe not to the level of someone like Serena, who routinely -- and as expected -- did so once more in her 1st Round match yesterday, but she's getting there.

Coming in off a thumb injury in Rome, with not a great deal of clay court prep (it's already her most trying surface), and without a true "signature" moment since switching coaches after winning back-to-back slam titles and rising to the top of the rankings, there were danger signs lining every wall on Chatrier Court for Osaka. Her disconcertingly awful start essentially gave away the opening set -- at love -- to Anna Karolina Schmiedlova today, and under the circumstances (unlike w/ Williams) it wasn't any sort of fait accompli that she was going to turn the proverbially sinking ship around.

With AKS pretty much following a gameplan of letting Osaka dig a hole so deep for herself that no rescue rope from above could reach her, the U.S. and Australian Open champ's fate was almost totally in her own hands.

A once highly-ranked player (Top 30 and climbing four years ago) who seemed on the cusp of something very good, AKS's career path has seen her suffer through recent seasons of horrific losing streaks and lost confidence before only in the past year or so even *beginning* to find her way out of the weeds. In January in Hobart, Schmiedlova reached her second final since last spring (a win on the clay in Bogota), but she still came into the day ranked at #90. She hadn't won a MD slam match since 2015, and was 0-3 in Paris since reaching the 3rd Round in her second appearance there in '14.

After barely being able to find the court with her shots in the 1st set, Osaka flipped a switch and led 3-0 in the 2nd. But after a short rain delay, she saw her lead slip away. At 4-4, Schmiedlova fired a rare winner (just her third of the day) to reach BP, and after converting it served for the match at 5-4 having won 29 of her 54 total points via UE's off Osaka's racket. When faced with having to close out the match on her own, though, the Slovak was found to be wanting in really the only section of the match in which she was tasked with doing something other than waiting to see what Osaka would do. Broken for 5-5, she got another chance to serve it out at 6-5, only to see Osaka right herself just enough to force a TB. After taking a 6-2 lead, Osaka put away the breaker at 7-4.

Based on the recent outings of both women, with Osaka's growing penchant for Serena-esque in-match turnarounds, and Schmiedlova's inability to close out matches, followed by soft 3rd set exits, a love or 6-1 final set win for Osaka seemed assured. And that's what happened, too. After AKS got on the board early, she never did again, with Osaka wining 0-6/7-6(4)/6-1.



It's her fifteenth straight slam victory, as she attempts to become the first player to win her first three slams consecutively, and just the third to open a season by winning the AO & RG titles (Capriati '01, Serena '15) in the last twenty-seven years. On this surface, it won't likely happen. But Osaka gave herself a chance today, at least for one more round, where she'll try to strengthen her clay court foundation still more against Victoria Azarenka.

Avoiding a similar wayward start against a vastly more experienced big stage player than the one she outlasted today would be a good first step.

...defending champ and #3 seed Simona Halep made her return to Chatrier Court a triumphant one, but it took a longer than she probably would have wished. With so many points to defend, she came to Paris as the only player ranked in the Top 6 without a chance to finish this RG at #1, but what happened a year ago makes that essentially inconsequential.

After taking the 1st set from Ajla Tomljanovic, Halep's level of play didn't fall off the table in the 2nd. The Aussie just upped her own. Coming out on top in longer rallies (a Simona hallmark), Tomljanovic seized the lead and broke the Romanian to take the set 6-3 and force a 3rd. But Halep's hard-won history of dealing with her sometimes debilitating perfectionism in the past has added a newly mentally strong aspect to the physical resilience that has often defined her career. Rather than be angry about losing the 2nd, she immediately went about her business in the 3rd. A quick break gave her the advantage, and a double-break lead at 3-0 allowed her room to breath. Once there, she rode out her lead to a 6-1 deciding set win.



...#22 Bianca Andreescu, in her first match since Miami in March, completed her suspended contest against lucky loser Marie Bouzkova, taking the match knotted at a set apiece by claiming a 6-4 3rd on Tuesday to record her first career MD win in Paris. It was a wild one, but Andreescu did what she's done better than anything since late last year: win. In the combined-over-two-days 3:02 length of the match, the Canadian had a huge winner total (58) to offset her equally humongous (60) UE numbers, converting 9-of-25 BP chances. Bouzkova, who originally lost in qualifying to Russian Liudmila Samsonova, had 24/32 W/UE totals, and was 8-of-15 on BP opportunities.



Even while missing two months, Andreescu is 32-4 this season, with three of her losses coming in three-setters and the fourth via retirement. Since losing in U.S. Open qualifying last summer, she's a combined 50-7.

...Czech Karolina Muchova rallied from a set down to defeat #17 Anett Kontaveit, 3-6/6-2/6-2, as the Estonian has squandered another opportunity for her potential maiden slam breakthrough. For all the 23-year old has done on the regular tour, the elusive "big event" title or slam moment have still eluded her in her career. She hasn't won a tour title in two years, but has reached Premier 5 (Wuhan '18) and Premier (Stuttgart this spring) finals in the last year, reached a career high rank of #14 and notched seven Top 10 wins over the last sixteen months.

When #6 Petra Kvitova pulled out yesterday, Kontaveit found herself in position to capitalize and reach her first major QF (at least). A year ago, Kontaveit matched her best ever slam result with a Round of 16 run in Paris, so she had a recent history of something good on her side.

But the shot-making Muchova, 22, was always going to be a tough out. She reached the U.S. Open 3rd Round last summer in her slam MD debut, and this clay season played in her first WTA final in Prague.

Kontaveit's exit leaves #11 Sabalenka (def. Cibulkova today) as the only remaining seed in what was Kvitova's section. The Belarusian came into this RG without a career MD win Paris, and after getting her first today will find her AO conqueror (Amanda Anisimova) waiting for her again in the 2nd Round.

Hmmm, looking at the section's remaining players, could Samantha Stosur, this decade's version of Zelig/Forrest Gump -- she's often been involved first-hand in, or as a drive-by spectator to, history in Paris in the 2010's, but has never fully been *the* star, though she just keeps on keeping on as in this event almost as if nothing ever changes much for her at RG -- slip through the cracks and author another RG moment at age 35?

The Aussie has reached one final and three other semis at RG since 2009, and has advanced to at least the 3rd Round every year since 2007. At 40-15, though she's never won it (as she did the U.S. Open), this is most definitely been Stosur's *best* major. By a long shot.

...meanwhile, qualifier Anna Blinkova joined the list of Hordettes storming into the 2nd Round (for the record, the Russians do get the "Upset Queens" honor for this RG, having knocked off three seeds in the 1st Round), this time at the expense of her countrywoman, Margarita Gasparyan, who was playing in her first Roland Garros in three years after multiple knee surgeries and long absences in recent seasons.

I bring this match up, though, mostly because of the scoreline: 6-3/4-6/8-6. As the Sasnovich/Hercog match did previously, it's a reminder that true 3rd set slam tennis *is* still alive and well. But only in Paris. Roland Garros is now the last of the four majors to continue to play out the final set to the classic win-by-two-games resolution. Really, as it should be on clay.

With the recent changes, now all four slams do it differently (which, in an odd way, I kind of like):

=SLAM FINAL SET RULES=
AO: Super TB at 6-6 (to 10)
RG: play out, win by two games
WI: TB at 12-12 (to 7)
US: TB at 6-6 (to 7)

...another Russian, #21 Dasha Kasatkina, is in desperate need of a good result at this Roland Garros. After a disastrous first quarter of the season (3-7) following her Top 10 season of last year, Kasatkina was eyeing the clay court circuit as her "safe place." While things have been a little bit better, she still came to Paris just 3-3 on the dirt. The 2014 junior champ at RG, and a slam quarterfinalist in Paris for the first time in '18 (which she then followed up with another at SW19), Kasatkina down qualifier Jasmine Paolini 6-2/6-3 on Tuesday.



...some quick awards and updates:

UPSET QUEENS: Russia, with ease. Half of the six seeds to be defeated in the 1st Round were taken out by Hordettes: Potapova (def. #5 Kerber), Kudermetova (def. #13 Wozniacki), Alexandrova (def. #30 Buzarnescu).

Légion de Lenglen honoree: Court Simonne-Mathieu. Immediately recognizable, and a one-of-a-kind slam grounds attraction with its surrounding greenhouse open year-round to the public, it *should* be a unique inspiration for the other majors to seek to emulate or top in creativity for years to come. Haha. Yeah, I know that won't happen... but wouldn't it be great if it did?

REVELATION LADIES: still too close to call, but there are a number of contending groups: Spain (w/ Sorribes Tormo and Bolsova), Czech Republic (Vondrousova and Muchova), Sweden (Peterson and Larsson) and the U.S./Canada contingent (Andreescu, Kenin, Anisimova, Brady, Collins, Rogers, etc.)

NATION OF POOR SOULS: Italy. When it rains it pours. On the heels of Italy finally falling into zone play in Fed Cup for the first time since 1997, the 1st Round losses by the only two Italian women in the Roland Garros MD -- qualifier Jasmine Paolini and Giulia Gatto-Monticone -- means it's the first time none reached the 2nd Round in Paris since 1982.

Serena Williams was eight months old. (And The Art of the Deal was still five years from being released... calling Commander Sloane and her time machine.)

NOTES: the 1st Round standings...

9-8...United States
5-8...Russia
4-0...Spain
4-3...Czech Republic
3-1...Romania, Ukraine
3-3...Australia
3-8...France
2-0...Croatia, Poland, Sweden
2-1...Japan
2-2...Belarus
2-3...China, Slovakia
2-5...Germany
1-0...Great Britain, Greece, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Puerto Rico, Taiwan
1-1...Canada, Estonia, Latvia, Serbia, Switzerland
1-2...Belgium, Kazakhstan
1-3...Slovenia
0-1...Denmark, Hungary, Thailand, Tunisia
0-2...Italy




...LIKE ON DAY 3: Flying with Caro...




...LIKE ON DAY 3: Dem feets...




The decade had already begun with history taking up a comfortable residence at Roland Garros.

The 2012 edition would be no exception...


The 2012 Roland Garros recap... here.
The 2012 Roland Garros recap... here.











[from Ostapenko's Instagram story]















View this post on Instagram

Back to my fav?? @rolandgarros #DD

A post shared by Daria Kasatkina?? (@kasatkina) on









View this post on Instagram

“Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. #flyingBbackatit #RG19

A post shared by Bianca (@biancaandreescu_) on







*RG "UPSET QUEENS" NATION/REGION*
2004 Ukraine
2005 France
2006 United States
2007 Romania
2008 Czech Republic
2009 Kazakhstan (ex-Russians)
2010 Australia
2011 Romania
2012 United States
2013 Slovak Republic
2014 France
2015 Croatia
2016 South America
2017 South America
2018 Ukraine
2019 Russia

*RG "NATIONS OF POOR SOULS"*
2012 ROU (1-5 in 1st Rd.; Cadantu double-bageled)
2013 CZE (2-8 in 1st Rd.)
2014 CHN (0-4 in 1st; Sh.Zhang "1st Loss" & #2 Li, AO champ)
2015 USA (4-13 in 1st Rd.; most players in draw)
2016 ITA (Quartet 0-3 in 1st Rd.; Pennetta retired)
2017 GER (2-5 1st Rd.; #1 Kerber out)
2018 LAT (both DC Ostapenko & Sevastova out 1st Rd.)
2019 ITA (0-2; first none in RG 2nd Rd. since 1982)

*RG "Légion de Lenglen" WINNERS*
[formerly "Joie De Vivre" Award, 2011-15]
2011 Virginie Razzano, FRA
2012 Virginie Razzano, FRA
2013 Serena Williams, USA
2014 Kristina Mladenovic, FRA
2015 Francesca Schiavone, ITA
2016 Alize Lim, FRA
2017 Caroline Garcia, FRA
2018 Serena Williams, USA
2019 Court Simonne-Mathieu





TOP QUALIFIER: #22q Elena Rybakina/KAZ
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): xx
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q3: #1q Bernarda Pera/USA def. #21q Kaja Juvan/SLO 6-4/1-6/7-6(1) [Juvan up break three times in 3rd, served at 5-4]
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): xx
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-RD. MATCH (SF-F/Jr.): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: #31 Petra Martic/CRO (def. Jabeur/TUN)
FIRST SEED OUT: #5 Angelique Kerber/GER (1st Rd./Potapova)
UPSET QUEENS: Russia
REVELATION LADIES: xx
NATION OF POOR SOULS: Italy (0-2, none in RG 2nd Round for first time since 1982)
LAST QUALIFIERS STANDING: 1st Rd. wins: Blinkova, Bolsova, Kucova, Nara
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: 1st Rd.: Davis, Hon, Parry
LAST PASTRY STANDING: In 2nd Rd.: Garcia, Mladenovic, Parry
MADEMOISELLE/MADAM OPPORTUNITY: xx
IT "??": Nominee: Parry
COMEBACK PLAYER: xx
CRASH & BURN: Nominee: #5 Kerber (1st Rd.)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF PARIS: Nominees: #1 Osaka (1st Rd.-Schmiedlova served twice for match); Cirstea (1st Rd.-Juvan up set and 4-2 2nd, 5-3 in 3rd and served for match at 5-4)
DOUBLES STAR: xx
VETERAN PLAYER (KIMIKO CUP): xx
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: Nominee: Parry (young MD winner since '09)
Légion de Lenglen HONOREE: Court Simonne-Mathieu
Coupe LA PETIT TAUREAU: awarded on LPT Day/June 1




All for Day 3. More tomorrow.
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