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Tuesday, January 17, 2023

AO.2 - On the Court Where It Happens

Is this the time that Aryna Sabalenka is not going to throw away her shot?
Is she not going to throw away her shot?
Hey, she's just like a tiger
She's young (well, no longer *as* young...but still just 24), scrappy and hungry
Is she not going to throw away this shot?




Since she first really came to the attention of most, in 2017 Fed Cup play when she helped carry Belarus into an unexpected appearance in the event final a year *before* she was chosen as the WTA's Most Impressive Newcomer of the year, Sabalenka has had the look of a player built for something great. Blessed with power and a lethal serve (when she's in control of it), and with an intense emotional investment in her craft that often works both for *and* against her actual success between the lines (and the ears), the Belarusian has been a booming, building force on the women's tour for now more than half a decade.

For years, she's been on the court where it happens, often making big things happen, but has so far been unable to grab one of the sport's greatest prizes.

Still, she's won eleven tour titles, ranked as high as #2, reached three slam singles semis and a WTAF final (defeating the world #1, #2 and #3 en route last fall in Fort Worth) while going 4-0 in 1000-level finals and putting up at 25-7 mark in majors over the past two seasons. She's even been the doubles #1, winning two major WD crowns.

In Week 1 in Adelaide, Sabalenka won the third opening week singles title of her WTA career, doing so in a *third* different nation while coming into the new season's first slam undefeated on the court, newly engaged off it and maybe, just maybe, having learned at the WTAF just how close she is to something great (or grand) if she can just trim a few rough edges off her game, add a few tweaks and not allow her frustrations to get the best of her at precisely the wrong time.

Though Sabalenka won no singles titles in '22, her first title-free season since 2017, last year may have proven to be the most important of her career. After opening her season in a hail of double-faults, the sort of pattern which has taken down other players over the years for seasons at a time (if they *ever* fully recovered), she managed to pull things together over the course of the schedule, reaching her third slam semi (U.S.), going 10-3 in majors, qualifying for the WTAF and then becoming just the fourth woman in tour history (first since '08, with the other being names Steffi, Serena and Venus) to defeat each of the world's Top 3 in a single event. That she didn't ultimately win the title, the only of the four to fail to finish the week with a trophy as she lost to Caroline Garcia in two close sets, while disappointing, may have been the internal (and educational) boost that she needed to take the proverbial "next step" by the end of '23.

Or maybe even this month. We'll see how things play out over the next two weeks.

Sabalenka has reached the Round of 16 the last two years in Melbourne, and this year finds herself on the opposite side of the draw of the likes of all three of last year's returning semifinalists (Swiatek, Collins and Keys), as well as the reigning Wimbledon champ (Rybakina), last year's Roland Garros runner-up (Gauff), world #3 Jessie Pegula and others. Though the bottom half features a two-time '22 slam finalist (Jabeur), Garcia and a few other big names, a case can be made that Sabalenka might just be the "most accomplished" of the title threats assembled in her half of the bracket.

Having dealt with double-faults and dangerous downturns in the middle of the fray, will this Australian Open prove to be the moment when Sabalenka uses her emotions only for good on the court where it happens, making it happen for her and finally seizing the day?

Is she finally going to take her shot?

In her opening slam jam of '23, Sabalenka faced off with Czech Tereza Martincova, and save for one game in which she had to fight her way out of a deep hole on serve, the Belarusian put in a pretty routine day at the office.

At 1-1 in the opening set, Sabalenka fell behind love/40 on serve. She saved triple BP, plus one more chance for Martincova, and never faced another BP or lost another game in the set, winning it 6-1 in 27 minutes as she dominated on her 1st serve (winning 14/16 points).

In the 2nd, Sabalenka grabbed an early break lead, staved off just one additional BP in the set and closed out the 69-minute contest with a 6-4 set, finishing off a controlled (just 3 aces, but also only 3 DF), smart and effective (winning 27/31 1st serve points) serving match in which she accumulated 29 winners and showed that her attempt to add more variety to her game has taken some tentatively positive steps forward.



Still without having lost a match or set in the new season, Sabalenka has yet to have to fight *herself* in a big match and still prove that she can come through when the biggest stakes are on the table.

As long as she sticks around in the draw in Melbourne, that moment (and maybe several of them) gets closer and closer to becoming a reality, and Sabalenka closer and closer to learning whether *this* time she'll really be able to take that shot... and not miss.




=DAY 2 NOTES=
...and on Day 2, Garbine Muguruza slipped just a little bit deeper down the rabbit hole.



After having fallen from #3 to #55 over the course of last year after ending '21 with a WTAF title run, the Spaniard came into this AO looking for her first match win of 2023, and first in four months. She'd already started her "hoping-for-a-comeback" year by losing the opening MD match contested on the WTA tour this season, squandering a 6-0/5-2 lead vs. Bianca Andreescu in Adelaide, failing to serve out the win up 5-3 and 30/love, ultimately dropping 10 of the final 12 games. She fell in straights in the 1st Round in Week 2 to eventual Adelaide 2 champ Belinda Bencic.

Muguruza arrived at the season's first slam ranked #73, her lowest ranking in a decade, and promptly took the 1st set vs. #26 Elise Mertens. She battled back from 4-2 down in the 2nd and served for the match at 6-5. But Mertens broke to force a TB, won it and then ran off with a 6-1 3rd set, sweeping the final six games, to drop Muguruza to 0-3 on the year with her fifth straight defeat dating back to the final week of summer last September. She'll now drop outside the Top 80.



Oh, Garbi.

...elsewhere, Leylah Fernandez ('19 AO Jr. RU) recorded her first career women's MD win in Melbourne (yes, that's correct), as the '21 U.S. Open finalist handed Alize Cornet a 7-5/6-2 loss one year after the French veteran had reached her first career slam QF with a Final 8 run in her 63rd career slam MD, the longest it'd *ever* taken a player to reach such a stage in tour history.



Cornet's '22 QF set the stage for turning what was supposed to be a "farewell season" into a resurgent campaign that produced the 32-year old's best overall slam year (w/ a career-best 11 match wins and her just her second season in which she reached the 3r+ at all four majors, her first since '13). Cornet's one-match cameo here at least extends her record WTA streak of slam MD appearances to 64.

With her first AO win in hand, 20-year old Fernandez's task will be to just put together a full, healthy season. The rest would likely take of itself. In 2022, the Canadian defended her Monterrey singles title (becoming the first teen to successfully defend a tour title since '14), and reached the Roland Garros QF with wins over Belinda Bencic and Amanda Anisimova, only to suffer a broken foot in a loss to Martina Trevisan that caused her to miss Wimbledon and be severely limited in her preparation for her U.S. Open finalist points defense at the end of the summer (she lost in the 2r).

Fernandez had climbed into the Top 20 at the end of RG, and was as high as #13 before her Open points fell off. She ended the season at #40, where she remained coming into Melbourne.

Speaking of Trevisan, the #21-seeded Italian, who'd shown well in the first week of this season with a 2-win United Cup effort (one over Maria Sakkari in the ITA/GRE semi) , fell to qualifier Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. The veteran Slovak (though she's somehow still just 28) -- whose career has had so many hairpin turns, steep slopes and dizzying inversions that there should be a rollercoaster somewhere named "The Schmiedy" -- opened her '23 slam MD year with a 3 & 2 victory.

Such wins have been few and far between for AKS for quite a while now, as she'd gone just 7-20 in slam MD between 2016-22, reaching just one slam 3rd Round since 2015 (at the '20 RG). She's now a win away from matching her career-best result in a major, and playing into the 3rd Round in Melbourne for the first time ever.

...days after reaching the Adelaide 2 doubles final in her first event since last May, former RG singles finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, a three-time AO quarterfinalist, saw her singles return go not nearly as smoothly. Against Camila Giorgi, Pavlyuchenkova dropped the first seven games of the match in a 6-0/6-1 loss.

...already a two-time '23 women's doubles champ (w/ two wins in Adelaide with different partners), wild card Taylor Townsend added her first slam MD singles win since '20 in Melbourne (before she became a first-time mom in 2021), defeating fellow wild card Diane Parry 1 & 1.

Townsend swept the AO girls' singles and doubles titles in 2012.



...while her two younger fellow Czech Crushers -- Sara Bejlek and sister Brenda Fruhvirtova -- lost their 1st Round matches on Monday, 17-year old Linda Fruhvirtova has recorded a win in her maiden appearance in a major for the second consecutive slam, following up her U.S. Open 1st Round win (def. Wang Xinyu) with a love & 4 victory over Aussie wild card Jaimee Fourlis.

Another Australian wild card had much better luck.

Kimberly Birrell, 24, didn't receive her MD free pass from Tennis Australia until Venus Williams' injury caused her to give up her WC slot and a berth in what would have been her 92nd career slam MD (her 91 appearances are already an all-time record, ten more than the second-place total of 81 by sister Serena). Birrell made the most of her shot on Tuesday.

Granted, clearly Kaia Kanepi operates far better in the role of underdog. The 37-year old Estonian has a long history of slam upsets and seven QF results (including one at last year's AO), but her time in this draw as the #31 seed was just a one-match relationship. Kanepi had the chance to extend her stay, taking the 1st set 6-3 and serving for the match at 5-4 in the 2nd. But she couldn't put the win away, and saw Birrell force and win a TB and then take a quick lead in the 3rd en route to a 3-6/7-6(4)/6-1 victory.



This isn't Birrell's first trip in the AO spotlight. She reached the 3rd Round four years ago, getting wins over (then) qualifier Paula Badosa and #29 Donna Vekic before losing to #2-seeded Angelique Kerber.

...extreme heat delays caused play to be suspended on the outside courts until late in the afternoon in Melbourne, setting up what will likely be a verrrry long night as the tournament tries to get as much of the 1st Round completed as possible. Meanwhile, rain is expected on Day 3.



...in the night session, Adelaide 2 champ Belinda Bencic (#12) begins her quest for an overdue slam triumph, facing off with Viktoriya Tomova on MCA. Bencic has reached the second week of a major just once (US '21 QF) since her lone slam SF run in NYC in 2019. Her only such result in Melbourne was a 4th Round result in 2016.





...BUT, STILL...ON DAY 2:

Never turn your back on Them.
















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*GIRLS/WOMEN'S AO SLAM CHAMPS - OPEN ERA*
[won Girls & Women's titles]
Evonne Goolagong (1970 Jr.; 1974-77 Women's)
Chris O'Neil (1973 Jr.; 1978 Women's)
Victoria Azarenka (2005 Jr.; 2012-13 Women's)
[others]
Lindsay Davenport (1992 Jr. RU; 2000 Women's Champ)
Maria Sharapova (2002 Jr. RU; 2008 Women's Champ)
Caroline Wozniacki (2006 Jr. RU; 2018 Women's Champ)
[additional active]
Madison Brengle (2007 Jr. RU; 4r)
Marta Kostyuk (2017 Jr. W; 3r)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (2006-07 Jr. W; QF)
Karolina Pliskova (2010 Jr. W; SF)
Yulia Putintseva (2012 Jr. RU; 3r)
Clara Tauson (2019 Jr. W; 3r)
Taylor Townsend (2012 Jr. W; 2r)






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TOP QUALIFIER: Katherine Sebov, CAN
TOP EARLY ROUND (1r-2r): xx
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q2 - #27 Brenda Fruhvirtova/CZE def. Daria Snigur/UKR 5-7/7-6(3)/6-3 (rallies from 7-5/5-1, break down twice early in the 3rd; 15-year old is youngest in AO MD in slam debut)
TOP EARLY RD. MATCH (1r-2r): xx
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE RD. MATCH (SF-F/WC/Doub.): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: #3 Jessie Pegula/USA (def. Jaqueline Cristian/ROU)
FIRST SEED OUT: #28 Amanda Anisimova/USA (1r-lost to Kostyuk/UKR)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: Anna Bondar/HUN, Olivia Gadecki/AUS, Diana Shnaider/RUS
PROTECTED RANKING MD WINS: 1r: Muchova, Podoroska
UPSET QUEENS: xx
REVELATION LADIES: xx
NATION OF POOR SOULS: xx
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: 1r wins: Bucsa, Burel, Schmiedlova, Shnaider, Volynets
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: 1r wins: Birrell, Gadecki, Townsend
LAST AUSSIE STANDING: 1r wins: Birrell, Gadecki
Ms. OPPORTUNITY: xx
IT (??): xx
COMEBACK PLAYER: xx
CRASH & BURN: xx
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF MELBOURNE: Nominee: Birrell (1r-Kanepi up a set and for match at 5-4 2nd; Birrell got WC when Venus withdrew)
KIMIKO VETERAN CUP: xx
LADY OF THE EVENING: xx
AUSTRALIAN LANGUARGE ARTS AWARD: Nominee: one year after Barty is first WS champ in 44 years, #160 Fourlis is highest ranked AUS in MD
DOUBLES STAR: xx
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: xx





All for Day 2. More tomorrow.
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