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Friday, January 20, 2023

AO.5 - Another Hit for the Pegula Mafia

So far in Melbourne, getting in Jessie Pegula's way hasn't been very good for anyone's longevity.



On Friday in their 3rd Round encounter, Marta Kostyuk stepped into Pegula's direct path. While the contest proved to in actuality be far closer than the final 6-0/6-2 scoreline would seem to indicate, the #3 seed continued to do what she's become so adept at the last couple of seasons: stack up wins on some of the sport's biggest stages.



Pegula reached three slam QF in 2022, as well as a fourth in Melbourne in '21. Thus far, though, she's gotten no further on a major stage.

With so much recent consistent success on the court -- including QF+ results in 10 of 16 1000 level events from 2020-22 -- late last season Pegula finally knocked down a peskily persistent "she hasn't..." notation in her careerbgio by finally claiming her first singles title in three years, grabbing a big 1000 win in Guadalajara in the fall.

In the opening week of the new season, after going 0-4 vs. the Pole a year ago, Pegula notched her first career #1 victory with a win over Iga Swiatek. Granted, it was in the glorified exhibition that was the United Cup, but what really mattered was what she'd do in the *aftermath* of the win. Would the win lift her confidence and game, and render all other things that have so far eluded her suddenly possible, if not probable, in the coming season?

Well, so far, she hasn't lost since defeating Swiatek 2 & 2 in the U.C. semis. She won her final singles match (4 & 2 vs. Italy's Martina Trevisan) as the U.S. claimed the inaugural United crown, and has gone about continuing to crush opponents on the scoreboard in Melbourne, through three rounds dropping just 11 total games (and 8 of those came in one match vs. Aliaksandra Sasnovich).

Her 3rd Round win today gives her three straight trips into the second week at the Australian Open. After her match, Pegula questioned whether making it to the middle weekend really counted as "the second week" since the tournament started on a Monday. Actually, she has a good point, and I've often wondered about just that myself over the years... but I guess it's just something that we've all "agreed" just *is* (or at least *sounds* like it is, and that's good enough) whether all the technical fine print (ala something similar to the whole thing about when decades/centuries *really* begin) lines up perfectly or not.



Of course, Pegula *could* just play all the way through to the second *weekend* and make the whole question a perfectly elementary one. Don't look now... but she just might.




=DAY 5 NOTES=
...while the bottom half of the draw is shaping up to be a veritable "Ms. Opportunity" free-for-all, with no former slam champions in the sixteen remaining players, and just two past finalists (Pliskova, Vondrousova), the eight top half matches today featured a group five different women who'd combined to win eight slam singles titles, and eight woman who'd played in slam finals (filling five of the eight finalist slots last season alone).

...while Pegula was dispatching Kostyuk at MCA, #22 Elena Rybakina was at Kia Arena taking care of the '22 AO runner-up, #13 Danielle Collins. Though the final scoreline here was much longer than that of Pegula/Kostyuk, a case can be made that Rybakina actually was is more complete control. With her big serve in hand, the Kazakh only faced a single BP the entire match. Bully for Collins that it came at 5-6, 15/40 in the 2nd set, and when Rybakina pulled a forehand the Bannerette got the break and leveled the match a one set each.

In the 3rd, Rybakina went right back to work, taking a 4-0 lead and brushing Collins aside for 6-2/5-7/6-2 victory to reach her first Round of 16 in Melbourne (after a RG QF in '21, and Wimbledon win last year).



Rybakina came into this opening '23 slam without her customary good pre-AO result, arriving with a 1-2 record with losses to Kostyuk and Petra Kvitova (and, wouldn't you know it, a three-set win in her season opener in Adelaide over Collins). The last three seasons had seen Rybakina put up nice pre-AO numbers, going a combined 17-3: 9-1 with W/RU results in '20, 3-1 with a QF in '21, and 5-1 with a RU last year. She was just 4-3 in AO play those same seasons. Maybe better timing will see her reach her peak just a *little* bit later this time.

She'll need it to be the case, as she'll face #1 Swiatek in the 4th Round. Today Iga faced off with Spanish qualifier Cristina Bucsa, who smiled her way to a big upset of Bianca Andreescu two days ago. It wasn't even a contest. Once again, Swiatek opened up a brunch counter on MCA and served up one (and almost two) bagels to her opponent, winning 6-0/6-1 to reach her 11th career slam Round of 16 (fourth in a row in Melbourne).

...#7 Coco Gauff remained undefeated on the season, winning her 8th straight match and 15th and 16th consecutive sets with a 6-3/6-2 win over fellow Bannerette Bernada Pera.

In her first AO Round of 16 since '20, but her third in the last four majors, '22 RG finalist Gauff will next '17 RG champ Alona Ostapenko. Today the #17 seed reached the second week (yep) of a hard court major for the first time with a 6-0/6-3 win over Kateryna Baindl.



Baindl's exit meant that all three Ukrainians in action today fell by the wayside, as she and Kostyuk has been joined after the day's opening match on Laver by Anhelina Kalinina, who lost 6-2/6-3 to #20 Barbora Krejcikova, as the former RG champ advanced to the second week (yep, still a thing) in Melbourne for the second straight year. She'll next face Pegula.



...the field of eight remaining players will be filled out in the night session, as #10 Madison Keys (2015 & '22 SF) takes on two-time champ Victoria Azarenka, the #24 seed, on Laver. On MCA, #6 Maria Sakkari takes on Zhu Lin.

...meanwhile, wheelchair #1 Diede de Groot continues to roll along, but she *did* get a little needed pushback (we don't want her to get bored, you know) from #2 Yui Kamiji on Friday in the final of the Melbourne WC Open. De Groot defeated Kamiji for the 16th straight time, but had to go three sets and come from a set down to do it, winning 6-7(3)/6-1/6-2. It's the second time in three meetings (w/ U.S. Open final) that Kamiji has claimed the 1st set.

Of course, the win sends de Groot into the AO next week on a 78-match singles winning streak, a full two-year unbeaten run that began after Kamiji last defeated her in the Melbourne Open final in '21. De Groot is a combined 83-1 from 2021-23.

Even in defeat, this has to be seen as something resembling progress for Kamiji, who must be *super* frustrated by now. While she's lost sixteen straight to de Groot, and is 1-17 against her since the start of '21, the former #1 from Japan has beaten her last 38 non-de Groot opponents, going 43-1 (losing to Aniek Van Koot in the AO QF) since the start of 2022.

In the doubles final, Kamiji got a "smidge" of payback, teaming with Zhu Zhenzhen to defeat de Groot & Van Koot 6-4/6-4.



...COCO CLEARLY HAS THE BEST "ACTION POSES"...ON DAY 5:












=WOMEN'S SINGLES ROUND OF 16=
#1 Iga Swiatek/POL vs. #22 Elena Rybakina/KAZ
#17 Alona Ostapenko/LAT vs. #7 Coco Gauff/USA
#3 Jessie Pegula/USA vs. #20 Barbora Krejcikova/CZE
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**AO "AUSTRALIAN LANGUARGE ARTS AWARD" WINNERS**
=2020=
["Good On Ya, Mate"] Aces for Bushfire Relief
=2021=
["G'Day, Naomi"] Naomi Osaka & the "good luck" butterfly
=2022=
["Freakin' Hell?"] Tennis Australia sides with unvaccinated Novak Djokovic, but bans visible support for Peng Shuai
=2023=
One year after Ash Barty is first Aussie AO champ in 44 years, #160 Fourlis is highest ranked AUS in MD; only two AUS wild cards get 1r wins, none go past 2r







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TOP QUALIFIER: Katherine Sebov/CAN
TOP EARLY ROUND (1r-2r): #3 Jessie Pegula/USA
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q2 - #27 Brenda Fruhvirtova/CZE def. Daria Snigur/UKR 5-7/7-6(3)/6-3 (rallies from 7-5/5-1, break down twice early in the 3rd; 15-year old is youngest in AO MD in slam debut)
TOP EARLY RD. MATCH (1r-2r): 2nd Rd. - #6 Maria Sakkari/GRE def. (Q) Diana Shnaider/RUS 6-3/5-7/3-6
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE RD. MATCH (SF-F/WC/Doub.): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: #3 Jessie Pegula/USA (def. Jaqueline Cristian/ROU)
FIRST SEED OUT: #28 Amanda Anisimova/USA (1r-lost to Kostyuk/UKR)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: Anna Bondar/HUN, Olivia Gadecki/AUS, Diana Shnaider/RUS, Lucrezia Stefanini/ITA
PROTECTED RANKING MD WINS: In 3r: Siegemund, Vondrousova
UPSET QUEENS: UKR
REVELATION LADIES: CZE (three youngest players in MD)
NATION OF POOR SOULS: GER (1-4 1r; Petkovic ret., Kerber pregnant; NextGen 0-2)
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: In 3r: Bucsa(L), Volynets
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: Kimberly Birrell/AUS, Olivia Gadecki/AUS, Taylor Townsend/USA (all 2nd Rd.)
LAST AUSSIE STANDING: Kimberly Birrell, Olivia Gadecki (both 2nd Rd.)
Ms. OPPORTUNITY: xx
IT (??): xx
COMEBACK PLAYER: xx
CRASH & BURN: Garbine Muguruza/ESP (1r; 5 con. losses; out of Top 80 first time in a decade)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF MELBOURNE: Nominee: Bucsa (2r: Andreescu MP in 2nd set TB)
KIMIKO VETERAN CUP: xx
LADY OF THE EVENING: xx
AUSTRALIAN LANGUARGE ARTS AWARD: One year after Barty is first WS champ in 44 years, #160 Fourlis is highest ranked AUS in MD; only two AUS wild cards get 1r wins, none past 2r
DOUBLES STAR: xx
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: xx





All for Day 5. More tomorrow.
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