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Friday, June 2, 2023

RG.6- Destination: Pavlyuchenkova

While her route is usually circuitous, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova almost always reaches her destination.




Pavlyuchenkova has always been a little different off the court, while her results have sometimes been a perplexing mix on it.

A former junior #1 and *three*-time girls' major singles champion in 2006-07 (she's the most recent player to *defend* a junior slam crown, in Melbourne sixteen years ago), the now 31-year old's career, during which she's picked up 12 tour titles, has been renowned in some circles (including this one) for years for its eyebrow-raising hit-or-miss results, especially in slams.

After two major QF appearances in 2011, Pavlyuchenkova didn't reach a Round of 16 over the next eighteen, and fourteen times went out in the first two rounds. In 2016-17, she reached two more slam QF, but had more 1st Round exits (3) in the stretch. In 2018, she was a combined 2-4.

But as the new decade began, Pavlyuchenkova's fortunes took an even bigger upswing. In 2020, she reached her third Australian Open QF in four years; and following the pandemic reached her maiden slam singles final at Roland Garros, won an Olympic Gold medal in MX doubles and reached a career high ranking of #11.

But the swing remained ingrained in Pavlyuchenkova's DNA, as the big rise was due to be followed by a fall.

She tested positive for Covid in the opening weeks of last season, then injured her knee. After returning (too early) in the spring, despite managing to win the Rome doubles title, Pavlyuchenkova withdraw from RG and ended her season early. She played five singles matches all year long, missing three majors, and at one point couldn't walk or sit.

The Hordette returned in January, reaching the Adelaide doubles final in her opening event. But fourteen months after ending '21 ranked #11 in singles, Pavlyuchenkova found herself at #846. She recorded her first match win in Linz qualifying in February, more than a year since her last at the 2022 AO. Not sporting an ego too big to drop down a level to the ITF to find her form, Pavlychenkova played her first challenger in fifteen years.

In the MD w/ her protected ranking, Pavlyuchenkova saved a MP in the 1st Round in Madrid and posted her first WTA MD win in fifteen months with a victory over young Andorran Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva. VJK had served for the match, but Pavlyuchenkova found her fight, getting the break and a game later rallying from love/40 to get the hold. Pavlyuchenkova held three MP in the deciding TB, then had to save a MP before sweeping the final three points.

But lest one think the Hordette had turned the corner, in Rome, Pavlyuchenkova was double-bageled by Iga Swiatek in the 1st Round. Pavlyuchenkova then rebounded with a modest QF in Strasbourg, her first since her eight-month break, and notched the first Top 25 win (Magda Linette) in her comeback. She might have gone even deeper in the draw, having held a pair of MP vs. Lauren Davis, only to eventally lose at love in the 3rd set.

So, when Pavlyuchenkova, ranked #333 but using her protected ranking (again) to join the MD, arrived in Paris, few real expectations came with her. But, remember, this is Pavlyuchenkova... so the unexpected should be expected.

Thus, down went Czech teen Linda Fruhvitova, a tour title winner last fall, by a 6-2/6-2 score in the Russian's first match in Paris since losing the '21 final to Barbora Krejcikova. A round later, #15-seed Liudmila Samsonova saw Pavlyuchenkova erase a 5-2 3rd set disadvantage and get the win.

Today, #24-seeded countrywoman Anastasia Potapova felt the brunt of Pavlyuchenkova's upside. After trailing 6-4/2-2, Pavlyuchenkova won 11 of the final 12 games, this time *dispensing* the 3rd set bagel with a 4-6/6-3/6-0 victory, her second Top 25 win in five matches. It's her best stretch of results since she clocked three in consecutive three-setters at the '21 RG over, get this, Aryna Sabalenka, Victoria Azarenka and Elena Rybakina.

Pavlyuchenkova is the second lowest-ranked player to reach the Round of 16 in Paris in the Open era, behind only #451 Serena Williams in 2018.



9-1 in her last ten matches at Roland Garros, Pavlyuchenkova (now approaching the Top 150 in the live rankings) is in a section of the draw from which a semifinalist will emerge from herself, the #28 seed, an unseeded player and a lucky loser. Only *she* has reached that stage in Paris before.

The turning of Pavlyuchenkova's fate is surely around the corner (it always is), but who knows how far she can go before the universe seeks to "level things out."




=DAY 6 NOTES=
...meanwhile, the title contender talk for this RG has pretty much solely centered around the current "big 3" (not sure they've fully earned the capital "B" just yet), but does anyone else have a chance to swoop in and lift the Coupe Suzanne-Lenglen?

Well, today's field of 3rd Round winners *does* have quite a few who've played deep into majors, though only two have won titles, and neither did it in Paris.

Early in the day, 2022 RG semifinalist Dasha Kasatkina threw hereself into the second week once again with a super-dominant win over Peyton Stearns. The Bannerette was never able to figure out the Hordette's varied game of slices and looping forehands (oh, TC's Lindsay Davenport was flummoxed by Dasha today, too... LD has seemingly *always* found it stressful to try to wrap her mind around how players can win matches if they don't employ the same sort of big-serve, hard-groundies game that she did), as the #9 seed led 6-0/2-0 before a handful of errors from Kasatkina in game 9 put Stearns on the board. It wouldn't happen again, as Kasatkina prevailed 6-0/6-1.

After arriving in Paris at 12-12 on the year, Kasatkina has yet to drop a set this week.



...#3 Jessie Pegula has been remarkably consistent, but rarely spectacular, over the past couple of seasons. Hence her inability to advance past the slam QF level (going 0-5). After facing off with an often near-flawless #28-seeded Elise Mertens today, Pegula won't even get the chance to play for another QF berth at this major.



Healthy after some recent struggles, Mertens more resembled the "Belgian Rumble" that hit her way into the Australian Open semis five years ago than she has in ages. While she's managed to reach at least the 3rd Round at 20 of the last 21 majors (her 18-event run was stopped at last year's U.S. Open), she hasn't since been able to replicate her Melbourne run.

Pegula was finally able to push Mertens late in the 2nd set, but she was up to the challenge, holding in a five-deuce game to lead 5-3. The match ended one game later, 6-1/6-3. It ties for Mertens' biggest career win, establishing a four-way tie of victories over players ranked #3 in the world (the last was Simona Halep in Madrid two years ago).

While the Belgian's singles are suddenly worthy of notice once again, it should also be noted that Mertens (in a WD draw that no longer contains those two Czechs at the top of it) is but a RG doubles title away from completing a Career Doubles Slam, too. She and Storm Hunter claimed the Rome crown coming into Paris, defeating Coco Gauff & Pegula in the final. The winning duo are positioned in the top half of the WD draw, while Gauff/Pegula (the '22 RG runners-up) are the #2 seed in the bottom.

Elsewhere, Sloane Stephens' Paris form and resolve remain fit for the Louvre, as the 2018 RG finalist advanced to her ninth Round of 16 in Paris, and 16th in her slam career. Both are personal highs for anyone remaining in the women's draw. Stephens won 6-3/3-6/6-2 over Yulia Putintseva.



...meanwhile, two players advanced to their maiden 4th Rounds in Paris, thereby completing their Career Round of 16 Slams.

#2 Aryna Sabalenka handled Kamilla Rakhimova 2 & 2, finally putting a Round of 16 at RG in her career column in her 21st major MD. Of course, her success is heavily weighted back to the start of the 2021 season. She's reached the 4th round in seven of nine (hey... any Star Trek/Voyager/Picard fans, IYKYK) slams played, including six of seven, after having just one such result ('18 US) in her first twelve.

Later, Karolina Muchova's role as the final Czech in the draw saw her take out #27 Irina Camelia Begu 6-3/6-2, reaching her first RG second week and completing her Career Round of 16 in slam MD #17. Imagine if she could just stay healthy.

...While her final round of qualifying conqueror, Kayla Day, will play *her* 3rd Round match on Saturday, lucky loser Elina Avanesyan played hers today. And her luck continues to hold out. The Hordette's 3-6/6-1/7-5 win over qualifier Clara Tauson makes Avanesyan the first LL to reach the women's Round of 16 at a major in 30 years (Maria Jose Gaidano - '93 US) and just the fifth to do it in the Open era.



In fact, Avanesyan is just the third LL to win three MD matches in a major, as one of the previous Open era runs came in a smaller draw (so the Round of 16 was the 3r) and another LL had a 1st Round bye.

Avanesyan rallied from a break down at 2-0 in the 3rd, eventually serving for the win at 5-3, and holding a MP at 5-4. Ultimately, she sealed the win with a break of the Dane's serve to win 3-6/6-1/7-5.



...of course, the big headline match of Day 6 featured Elina Svitolina, who again got the chance to prove whether her slam past is a relic of her "before" days, or if things are still "just like before."

As of today, at least as far as her tennis is concerned, Svitolina is pushing all the right buttons. But, again, it wasn't an open-and-shut case against Anna Blinkova, the same Russian that the Ukrainian handled in straight sets in last weekend's Strasbourg final.

After dropping the 1st set, Svitolina seized control and took the 2nd, then led 3-1 in the 3rd. She held a BP for a 4-1 edge. Then Blinkova turned up the aggression and nearly took Svitolina out of this Roland Garros. After holding serve, the Hordette broke Svitolina on her fourth BP of game 5. The set was knotted at 4-4, and if you think *someone* wasn't teeing up some sharp references to a certain 2017 RG QF vs. Simona Halep, when Svitolina led by a set and 5-1 and still lost... well, then you don't know anything about that *someone* at all.

Turns out, they weren't needed, though. But they *almost* were.



Svitolina broke Blinkova for 5-4 and served for the match, only to fall down 15/40 and drop serve. Blinkova then recovered from love/30 only to double-fault on GP and lose serve again. For a second time Svitolina served for the match. After going up 30/15, Svitolina had to stave off a BP on a 17-shot rally, then took three MP before finally sealing the victory with a running backhand down the line to claim a 2-6/6-2/7-5 victory.



Of course, you know what came next. No, not an inconic moment that would stand as a testament to the solidarity established by the Original 9 and the power of sport to bring individuals from antagonistic nations together on common ground. There would be no handshake, and it appears as if there never will be. But Svitolina did at least acknowledge the existence and effort of Blinkova, labeled by most in the know as one of the nicest players on the WTA tour, with an apparent thumbs-up and quick comment in the players' native language.



Again, there was some light booing, and then the "reading of the tea leaves" began on social media as comments abounded about whether it was Svitolina or maybe actually Blinkova who was booed, or maybe both. Some even tried to say that Blinkova "refused a handshake," which was clearly not the case (by now, the RUS/BLR players are conditioned to stay back and let the Ukrainians pass before approaching the chair... the last thing anyone needs is an unintentional "Spirlea moment").

In the end, not buzzing past an opponent you just shared a great athletic battle with as if she's a lamp post in the park stands as a modest "victory."

(Sarcastic cheer.)

So, I guess that's as "best" as we're likely to get for the foreseeable future, and maybe not often at that. While horrible things happen in the war, the Ukrainian tour players seem intent on making the discovery of any sort of detente on this should-be-minor-but-isn't issue something akin to finding a straw of hay in a stack of needles. Pain and frustration begat pain and frustration, with "success" not even close to ever being assured.

The end of Svitolina's 4th Rounder *will* bear watching, as it's vs. another Russian in Kasatkina, the most outspoken of the bunch against the war... but also maybe the most unwilling to push any of the UKR players into an uncomfortable situation. So one shouldn't have high expectations for anything even minimally monumental to occur.

Hours after the match, Svitolina retweeted/posted this...



So, looks like the tour is stuck with this festering sore for the duration, and likely some time afterward, too.

It's still difficult to see what one thing has do with the other, and it seems less than helpful for Svitolina to essentially say that the Ukrainian players' actions were in response to Russian government officials not shaking the hands of Ukrainian government officials.

So... "they did it first so we're doing it now" is the justification they're sticking with? To *emulate* what you rightly saw as a disrespectful act by people you have no respect for, only not against *those* people but toward others who didn't offer up such insolent treatment? The same people, let's not forget, that those same players at first said they'd refuse to play, then tried to get banned from the tour.

Yeah, makes perfect sense.





*WOMEN'S SINGLES ROUND OF 16*
x vs. x
x vs. x
x vs. x
x vs. x
Karolina Muchova/CZE vs. (LL) Elina Avanesyan/RUS
(PR) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova/RUS vs. #28 Elise Mertens/BEL
(PR) Elina Svitolina/UKR vs. #9 Dasha Kasatkina/RUS
Sloane Stephens/USA vs. #2 Aryna Sabalenka/BLR







...THE SAME, BUT DIFFERENT... ON DAY 6:


This opinion is the first cousin of my don't-wear-the-same-outfits-in-tennis pet peeve...





...THE EUROSPORT HOLOGRAM INTERVIEWS ARE STILL A LITTLE FREAKY... ON DAY 6:




...FYI... ON DAY 6:


BTW, with seven stops in China: Guangzhou, Ningbo, Beijing, Zhenghou, Hong Kong, Nanchang and Zhuhai (the "Elite" Trophy returns). Hmm, I wonder if Peng Shuai will attend.




...I CONCUR ON BOTH... ON DAY 6:





















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*"CAREER SLAM" FEATS IN 2020s*
=ROUND OF 16=
2020 US - Alize Cornet, FRA (57th)
2021 AO - Donna Vekic, CRO (29th)
2021 US - Iga Swiatek, POL (11th)
2022 AO - Barbora Krejcikova, CZE (8th)
2022 AO - Kaia Kanepi, EST (53rd)
2022 US - Caroline Garcia, FRA (42nd)
2022 US - Coco Gauff, USA (13th)
2022 US - Ons Jabeur, TUN (22nd)
2022 US - Zhang Shuai, CHN (41st)
2023 RG - Karolina Muchova, CZE (17th)
2023 RG - Aryna Sabalenka, BLR (21st)
=QF=
2021 WI - Karolina Pliskova, CZE (36th)
2022 AO - Kaia Kanepi, EST (53rd)
=SF=
2021 WI - Karolina Pliskova, CZE (36th)
=F=
-

*LL IN SLAM 4th RD. IN OPEN ERA*
1980 RG - Hana Strachonova, SUI (3r)
1982 RG - Dana Gilbert, USA (4r; 1r bye)
1988 RG - Nicole Jagerman, NED (4r)
1993 US - Maria Jose Gaidano, ARG (4r)
2023 RG - Elina Avanesyan, RUS (4r)



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The very definition of a "small protest."




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TOP QUALIFIER: Mirra Andreeva/RUS (16; youngest in MD)
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): (Q) Mirra Andreeva/RUS (6 games lost in fewest in field; 10 con. sets Q+MD)
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q1: #29 Brenda Fruhvirtova/CZE def. Antonia Ruzic/CRO 3-6/6-2/7-6(10) - Ruzic MP in MTB; B.Fruhvirtova qualifies for first RG
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): 2nd Rd. - Anna Blinkova/RUS def. #5 Caroline Garcia/FRA 4-6/6-3/7-5 (Garcia saves 8 MP, but Blinkova gets upset on #9)
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-RD. MATCH (SF-F/Jr.-WC): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: Magdalena Frech/POL (def. Sh.Zhang)
FIRST SEED OUT: #29 Zhang Shuai/CHN (1r: Frech/POL)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: M.Andreeva/RUS, Avanesyan/RUS, Grabher/AUT, Navarro/USA, Noskova/CZE, Shymanovich/BLR, Stearns/USA, Waltert/SUI
UPSET QUEENS: ITA
REVELATION LADIES: RUS (11-2 1st Rd.)
NATION OF POOR SOULS: CZE (3-9 1st Rd.; four seeds out 1r; Krejcikova 0-2 since '21 title)
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: In 3r: M.Andreeva/RUS, Danilovic/SRB, Day/USA, Tauson/DEN(L)
LAST LUCKY LOSER STANDING: Elina Avanesyan/RUS (in 4th Rd.)
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: Leolia Jeanjean/FRA, Emma Navarro/USA & Diane Parry/FRA (all 2nd Rd.)
PROTECTED RANKING WINS: In 3r: Pavlyuchenkova/RUS(W), Sorribes Tormo/ESP, Svitolina/UKR(W)
LAST PASTRY STANDING: Oceane Dodin, Caroline Garcia, Leolia Jeanjean & Diane Parry (all 2nd Rd.)
Ms./Mademoiselle OPPORTUNITY: Nominee: Avanesyan, Svitolina
IT "TBD": Nominee: M.Andreeva (teen), Stearns (NCAA), Avanesyan (LL), Day
COMEBACK PLAYER: Nominee: Svitolina, Pavlyuchenkova, Day
CRASH & BURN: Barbora Krejcikova/CZE (0-2 since winning '21 title; 24 con. slam WD streak ends)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF PARIS: Nominees: Andreescu (1r-down 6-2/3-1 vs. Azarenka); Pavlyuchenkova (2r-down 5-2 3rd vs. Samsonova; #333 second-lowest ranked RG 4r)
DOUBLES STAR: xx
VETERAN PLAYER (KIMIKO CUP): Nominees: Pavlyuchenkova, Stephens
Mademoiselle/Madame OF THE EVENING: xx
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: xx
Légion de Lenglen HONOREE: xx
Coupe LA PETIT TAUREAU: 20th Anniv. of Justine Henin's first RG title in 2003






All for Day 6. More tomorrow.
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