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Thursday, July 6, 2023

W.4- Czech Your Luck at the Door


There's good luck, bad luck, and Muchova luck (aka not much luck at all).




The 1st Round match-up between #16 Karolina Muchova and Jule Niemeier was always going to be an intriguing affair. That it took until Day 4 to happen turned out to be the least of it.

Both players have talent to burn, and both have specifically sparked at the All-England Club, having reached the quarterfinals at the last three editions of Wimbledon. Muchova used her fluid variety to put together final eight runs in her first two SW19 visits in 2019 and '21, while Niemeier matched the feat in her own debut appearance last year. Muchova's run included wins over five seeds (including a 13-11 3rd set over Petra Kvitova in '19), while Niemeier took out one (then-#2 Kontaveit) and came within a 7-5 3rd set vs. countrywoman Tatjana Maria of reaching the semis.

Ah, but the two have something else in common.

Likely the only reason that Muchova, whose career has long been hampered by a series of injury-related absences, didn't join Niemeier in the QF in '22 was that the event was played just a few weeks after she'd rolled her ankle in Paris, retired from her 3rd Round match at Roland Garros and left town in a walking boot. The Czech still played Wimbledon, but was a shadow of her healthy self and lasted just one uninspiring round. Meanwhile, the reason for the German's late-ish blooming success was because of her own struggles with injuries as a young player.

Muchova managed to largely "beat the house" in Paris last month, staying one step ahead of the reaper, staging a comeback from 5-2 down (saving a MP) in the 3rd against Aryna Sabalenka in her second career slam semi and reaching her maiden final. She lost to Iga Swiatek in three sets, dropping her first career match vs. a Top 3 player. She'd been 5-0, including 4-0 in slams. But Muchova came to London with no grass court matches under her belt, having spent much of the time recovering from a viral illness she'd played through in Paris (that same one that drove Elena Rybakina from the draw).

Niemeier has struggled to find her form in '23, falling outside the Top 100 without any Wimbledon QF points to keep her ranking afloat. But she's seen a slight uptick in her results on grass. In Berlin, she defeated defending champ (and '22 WI finalist) Ons Jabeur, but slipped in the backcourt while in the process of trying to force a 3rd set vs. Marketa Vondrousova a round later, falling on her wrist and retiring from the match. While Niemeier's 3-2 grass mark this summer wasn't spectacular, it was far batter than the 5-16 record she'd put up on other surfaces this year. Where the injury stood for SW19 was anybody's guess, but the extended delay until match day probably didn't hurt.

Through much of today's match, Muchova resembled a player who hadn't played in almost a month, while Niemeier looked like one coming home and starting to feel good again. So, even before what would ultimately happen in the latter stages of the match, the German was keeping pace and actually outplaying the Czech. Still, as Muchova gradually found her footing, she pushed things to a 3rd set and was very much still in contention in the early going in the decider.

Muchova had to fight throughout on serve, holding in a long 8th game in the 1st while rallying from love/40 and saving four BP to tie the score at 4-4. Two games later she again had to dig out of a love/40 hole, reaching GP, but Niemeier converted on her 7th SP of the game when Muchova netted the back end of a serve-and-volley combo. Niemeier took the set 6-4.

Muchova took a 2-0 lead in the 2nd, but couldn't take advantage of an opening to go up a double-break in game 7. Niemeier held for 4-3. A game later, Muchova saved a BP and held in a game that included a display of her full arsenal, as she won points with slices, a lob, and a forehand winner, then closed the game with an ace to lead 5-3. But she couldn't serve out the set two games later. After Niemeier dropped serve, as well, Muchova got another shot at 6-5. She took a 40/love lead, and on her 5th SP to finally tied the match with a 7-5 win.

Niemeier broke to go up 2-0 in the 3rd, but then fate once again grabbed Muchova in a bear hug that prevented much hope for a comeback. Slipping in the backcourt, the Czech went down and that old feeling of impending doom was hovering over her shoulder again.



Already with the prospect of playing multiple back-to-back days in a slam on the agenda, and with rainy weather likely doing the surface no favors, Muchova was having her hip looked at and going off court for an MTO while staring into the face of a break deficit in the final set.

Muchova re-emerged with a heavily-strapped leg and tentative gait. She had a BP on Niemeier's serve in game 3, but the German held for 3-0. Muchova held to get on the board, but was more and more affected as the set wore on. An awkward DF put her down 5-1. The Czech played out the string, saving herself the acrimony from online bettors should she have retired (so at least there's that, right?), but had very little to give. Niemeier accepted the opportunity, winning 6-4/5-7/6-1 and picking up a very much-needed win.



Whether Niemeier's fire is re-lit is a question that will soon be answered, as will whether or not the rest of Muchova's summer will be a waiting game centered around lost time. Again.

One of these days, maybe Muchova will finally see the clouds fully open and the sun shine on her and only her. Hey, it's happened to at least one hard-luck Czech in the not *that* too distance past (i.e. in her lifetime). At this very tournament, in fact.

But until that day, Muchova waits, biding her time and hoping for better weather.





=DAY 4 NOTES=
...meanwhile, Muchova wasn't the only hard-luck Czech on Day 4, as within an hour of Muchova's rushed-along-by-injury 1st round exit, #10-seeded Barbora Krejcikova didn't even bother to push through to the finish line in her match, injuring her foot and retiring after dropping serve to fall behind 6-3/4-0 to 16-year old qualifier Mirra Andreeva in a 2nd Round encounter.



So, after a sterling early '23 hard court season was followed by a mediocre-to-bad clay court campaign, Krejcikova's rebound-minded grass season goes from opening with a Birmingham final run to a 1st Round exit at SW19. She still has a chance to take home some hardware in London, as long as the injury doesn't hamper yet another slam WD title run possibility with Katerina Siniakova (ala the illness and injury combinations that have left the pair 0-1 in the last two RG, while going 24-0 in the majors that have surrounded them since the start of '22). Siniakova, too, lost in singles today.

They're scheduled to be in action late on Friday.

Andreeva has now replicated her 3rd Round run as a qualifier last month in Paris, and currently sports a combined Q/MD career record in slams of 10-1. The Hordette is now assured of cracking the Top 100 after Wimbledon.



...Sofia Kenin is suddenly playing like she's done something in the game before. The qualifier, after knocking out #7 Coco Gauff, dispatched Wang Xinyu 6-4/6-3 today, reaching her first Wimbledon 3rd Round and the first at any slam in more than two years.



*Crossing fingers* that Kenin's run can continue at least another round, as her next opponent is Elina Svitolina, who took out #28 Elise Mertens in three sets (as anticipated, that wild card battle vs. Venus had an opportunity at the end of the rainbow).

The winner of Kenin/Svitolina will meet either Dasha Kasatkina or Vika Azarenka in the Round of 16, and all the ridiculousness that *that* would entail should the Ukrainian be involved. We've managed to avoid that sort of BS drama so far at this slam, and it'd be nice if the streak could continue.

...on Court 18, #32 Marie Bouzkova put an emphatic end to Anett Kontaveit's singles career (she's in the MX draw) with a 6-1/6-2 victory.

The Estonian ends with just 12 slam 3rd Rounds in 33 career MD appearances. During Kontaveit's one "golden year," between February 2021 and February 2022 when she reached 9 of her 17 career finals and won five of six WTA titles, she was a combined 5-4 in slam competition.



Now we can close that (fairly thin) book.

...while many of the players who reached the finals of the pre-Wimbledon grass court events are already long gone (6 of 12, so far), Katie Boulter is still around. Today the Nottingham champ was crowned the Last Brit Standing, as well, with her three-set triumph over Viktoriya Tomova to reach the 3rd Round at the AELTC for a second straight year.



...while #12 Veronika Kudermetova managed to avoid the 1st Round upset that seemed her likely fate against Kaia Kanepi, she proved little match for Marketa Vondrousova as the Czech won 6-3/6-3. Kudermetova committed 39 UE in the match's 17 games.

...quick! Throw a net over the Romanians!

Extending their under-the-radar exceptional play at this slam, the nation's women were at it again on Day 4. #29 Irina-Camelia Begu finished off Rebecca Marino in their uncompleted 1st Rounder, and Ana Bogdan advanced into her first Wimbledon 3rd Round in six tries with a win over Alycia Parks.

But the big "get" came from Sorana Cirstea. After having lost a 3-0 lead in the 2nd set, Cirstea battled back win a 2nd set TB, nipping #17 Alona Ostapenko 8-6 after seeing her 4-1 edge turn into a 6-6 tie with the Latvian two points from a straight sets victory.

Once in the 3rd set, Cirstea took a break lead at 4-3 (converting the lone BP in the set for either) and then outdistanced Ostapenko in the final games, ultimately closing out the 4-6/7-6(6)/6-4 victory with a love hold. It's Cirstea's first slam 3rd Round run since her Round of 16 in Melbourne last year.



The three wins on the day improves the Romanian contingent's overall mark to 6-1, with the only loss coming today when Jaqueline Cristian went out in a 2nd Rounder to #13 Beatriz Haddad Maia (7-1 in her last two slams after being 7-11 in major MD before this year's RG) in three sets.

...while Emma Raducanu has had her own set of issues in the aftermath of the '21 U.S. Open, her fellow finalist at that event, Leylah Fernandez, has been trying to put together a proper run at a slam ever since.

Granted, she reached a QF in Paris last year (getting three-set wins over Bencic and Anisimova en route), and defended a lower level tour title in Monterrey, in the almost-two years since her explosive NYC run, but the Canadian came into the day having exited in the 1r/2r in four of her last five slam MD appearances. Since knocking off three Top 10 players -- Osaka, Svitolina and Sabalenka (+ non-Top 10 Kerber) -- at Flushing Meadows two summers ago, Fernandez hasn't recorded another Top 10 win *anywhere*.

The Canadian looked as if she might break a few of those barriers in one fell swoop today, but then #5 Caroline Garcia happened.

From early in the 2nd set forward, their 2nd Round match held to a regular pattern. Literally. As the 3rd set headed to a finishing 10-point TB, there'd been just one break of serve in the previous 22 games. Fernandez had nine straight holds, while Garcia had ten.

In the TB, it was the Pastry who upped her aggression and took command, running out to a 6-3 lead. With Fernandez trying to hold on, she seemed to pull within 7-5 after challenging her first of two serves (unreturned by Garcia, and called out) and seeing the replay show the ball had touched a line. But she hadn't been given an ace (as Fernandez thought), and instead had to re-serve the point. She lost it, and Garcia took an 8-4 lead. It was too much to overcome.

Garcia carried the edge to the finish, winning 10-6, reaching the 3rd Round for the fourth time in the last five slams. She hadn't done so in the previous six.



While Garcia looks to take-off at SW19, Fernandez seems a bit grounded on the tarmac. Since her U.S. Open final, her slam results look like this: 1r-QF-DNP-2r-2r-2r-2r. Few players could really use a good U.S. Open to close out her summer more than her.

...on Court 1, Donna Vekic stepped up. And, well, Sloane Stephens stepped back right as it seemed as if she was about to step up.



Down 6-4/3-0, Vekic faced two BP to fall behind 4-0. Vekic had tears in her eyes, but Stephens couldn't convert. Still, the Bannerette led 5-2, and served for the match at 5-3. Tied at 30/30, two points from the win, Stephens -- as we've seen quite often over the years -- blinked, pulling back when she needed to move forward. Her forehand seemed to go backward with her mindset. She'd lose the next eight points, and 11 of 12, as Vekic went from a point from being MP down to serving for the set at 6-5. She held in a two-deuce game and sent things to a 3rd set.

Again, after holding to open the set, Stephens had opportunity placed right in front of her, holding 40/love leads in the 2nd and 3rd games. She lost them both, and Vekic went out to a 3-1 lead. Serving for the match at 5-4, Vekic saw Stephens (finally) pull out and fire her last salvo, blasting a return winner on the opening point. She'd ultimately hold a BP, but Vekic again prevailed, winning 4-6/7-5/6-4 in the most dramatic win of these very discombobulated first four days of this Wimbledon.



Vekic has a good grass court history (reaching four tour finals on the surface, including in Berlin this year) but has never really been able to get it to translate at SW19. She's reached one 4th Round since her 2013 debut. This is just her second 3rd Round run.



Meanwhile, Sloane will take her Good Sloane/Bad Sloane/Where is Future Sloane?/Does Future Sloane Even Exist Anymore? day in stride. She'll be smiling and posting good-natured social media posts in an instant. It's a winning attitude to have, daily life-wise. Tennis career-wise... well, it's probably why all that talent has only really *soared* for one great run (and only then after she'd been injured, down and out, and had a mountain to climb/challenger to undertake... and accomplished the feat remarkably quickly now, hmmm, *six* years ago this summer).

She's put together a memorable tennis legacy. But, my, what it *might* have been.

...the match-up between defending champ Elena Rybakina and Alize Cornet didn't produce the sort of upset that the veteran Pastry has authored in Wimbledons past. But, who knows, maybe it *could* have.

After the #3 seed won the 1st set, the two battled deep into the 2nd and Cornet threatened to break at 5-5, love/40 and get the chance to serve for the set. But Rybakina erased that deficit and got the game to deuce (for the 11th time), then saw Cornet become the latest player to slip and fall in the backcourt, hitting the ground hard. After a 10-minute break during which she was looked at by a physio on the court, then went off for treatment, Cornet, whose thigh was already wrapped, returned with even more taping up and down her right leg.



Of course, such a thing isn't uncommon for Cornet. So much so that she even used a photo of her playing with a wrapped thigh for the cover of her autobiography. Rybakina played one point to hold (after saving 5 BP before the fall), then Cornet managed to move around fairly well and hold serve to force a TB. Rybakina prevailed 7-2, winning her ninth straight SW19 match.



There's been much speculation for the past two seasons about Cornet's retirement, largely because she insinuated before '22 that it'd be her last year on tour, at least before she had a resurgent season. Before the tournament, SI's Jon Wertheim's preview article declaratively called this Cornet's "final" Wimbledon, though she's made no such official pronouncement. If it *does* turn out to be her swan song, one supposes it's fitting that it included a comeback, fall, wrapped body parts and a last bit of drama.

But she didn't *seem* to be saying goodbye as she exited.

...in pre-Wimbledon junior action, the Roehampton final will pit #4 Renata Jamrichova against yet another Crusher, #4 Tereza Valentova.

Valentova would be the second Czech in three years (L.Fruhvirtova '21) to win the title, while Jamrichova would be the tournament's first Slovakian winner.





...CONGRATULATIONS ON DAY 4:



So, does the Comeback Countdown Clock begin now, with an potential ETA sometime in 2025? Barty would be 29 years old at the '25 Wimbledon.


...COMING SOON TO AN INVITATIONAL DOUBLES MATCH NEAR YOU ON DAY 4:




...(PROBABLY) CAN'T BLAME *THIS* ONE THE *U.S.* EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM... ON DAY 4:



Of course, there's likely (at least) one prominant member of the U.S. House of Representatives who'd make the same mistake, but not even get the spelling correct ("Checkoslovakian," maybe?).














Interesting note: two of the biggest crossover hits for Kiss were "Beth" and "Hard Luck Woman," both sung by drummer Peter Criss. An increbible hit rate considering he didn't provide vocals on very many songs during his time with the group.








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*2023 FIRST CAREER SLAM MD WINS (w/ career slam MD)
-AUSTRALIAN OPEN (4)-
Anna Bondar, HUN (5th)
Olivia Gadecki, AUS (1st)
Diana Shnaider, RUS (1st)
Lucrezia Stefanini, ITA (1st)
-ROLAND GARROS (8)-
Mirra Andreeva, RUS (1st)
Elina Avanesyan, RUS (2nd)
Julia Grabher, AUT (2nd)
Emma Navarro, USA (2nd)
Linda Noskova, CZE (3rd)
Iryna Shymanovich, BLR (1st)
Peyton Stearns, USA (2nd)
Simona Waltert, SUI (1st)
-WIMBLEDON (4)-
Bai Zhuoxuan, CHN (1st)
Jodie Burrage, GBR (3rd)
Tamara Korpatsch, GER (5th)
Natalija Stevanovic, SRB (1st)

*MAIDEN CAREER SLAM MD WINS AT WI - 2020-23*
2020 DNP 2021 Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove, NED
2021 Maria (Camila Osorio) Serrano, COL
2021 Emma Raducanu, GBR
2022 Maya Chwalinska, POL
2022 Elisabetta Cocciaretto, ITA
2022 Dalma Galfi, HUN
2022 Catherine Harrison, USA
2022 Mai Hontama, JPN
2022 Katarzyna Kawa, POL
2022 Jule Niemeier, GER
2022 Panna Udvardy, HUN
2023 Bai Zhuoxuan, CHN
2023 Jodie Burrage, GBR
2023 Tamara Korpatsch, GER
2023 Natalija Stevanovic, SRB

*RECENT WIMBLEDON "REVELATION LADIES" NATIONS*
2013 Australia/New Zealand
2014 Czech Republic
2015 Switzerland
2016 Russia
2017 Great Britain
2018 Great Britain
2019 Russia
2021 South America
2022 Poland
2023 The Return of the Hordettes

*RECENT WIMBLEDON "UPSET QUEENS" NATIONS*
2013 Czech Republic
2014 United States
2015 United States
2016 Germany
2017 United States
2018 United States
2019 Slovenia
2021 Czech Republic
2022 France
2023 Romania

*RECENT WIMBLEDON "LAST BRIT STANDING"*
2014 Naomi Broady & Heather Watson (2nd Rd.)
2015 Heather Watson (2nd Rd.)
2016 Johanna Konta & Tara Moore (2nd Rd.)
2017 Johanna Konta (SF)
2018 Katie Boulter, Johanna Konta & Katie Swan (2nd)
2019 Johanna Konta (QF)
2021 Emma Raducanu (4th Rd.)
2022 Heather Watson (4th Rd.)
2023 Katie Boulter (in 3rd Rd.)






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TOP QUALIFIER: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro/ESP
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): xx
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q3 - #18 Lucrezia Stefanini def. (PR) Hsieh Su-wei 6-2/6-7(3)/7-6(11-9)
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): xx
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-RD. MATCH (SF-F/Jr.-WC): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: (PR) Barbora Strycova/CZE (def. Zanevska/BEL; first Wimb. match since 2019 SF)
FIRST SEED OUT: #15 Liudmila Samsonova/RUS (1st Rd.-Bogdan/ROU)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: Bai Zhuoxuan/CHN, Jodie Burrage/GBR, Tamara Korpatsch/GER, Natalija Stevanovic/SRB
UPSET QUEENS: Romania
REVELATION LADIES: The Return of the Hordettes
NATION OF POOR SOULS: ITA (1-6 1st Rd.)
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: in 2r: M.Andreeva(W), Bai, Golubic, Juvan(L), Kenin(W), Stevanovic
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: in 3r: Boulter, Svitolina
PROTECTED RANKING: Jaqueline Cristian/ROU, Sara Sorribes Tormo/ESP, Barbora Strycova/CZE (all 2nd Rd.)
LUCKY LOSER WINS: in 2r: Korpatsch/GER
LAST BRIT STANDING: Katie Boulter (in 3r)
Ms. OPPORTUNITY: xx
IT "??": xx
COMEBACK PLAYER: Nominees: Kenin, Svitolina
CRASH & BURN: Nominee: T.Maria (1r-Cirstea; '22 semifinalist)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF LONDON: Nominee: #20 Vekic (2r: trailed 6-4/3-0 and BP; Stephens at 5-3)
DOUBLES STAR: xx
VETERAN PLAYER (KIMIKO CUP): Nominees: Cirstea, Kvitova, Azarenka
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: xx
SPIRIT OF JANA (NOVOTNA) HONOREES: Nominees: Muchova & Krejcikova (hard-luck Czechs out injured within minutes of each other)






All for Day 4. More tomorrow.
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