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Monday, May 27, 2024

RG.2- Caution! Iga at Work

One down, six to go?




Maybe Iga Swiatek should just show up for work in Paris wearing some high visibility gear, carrying a Stop/Go sign and wearing a smile. Because at this point it sorta feels like she's just directing traffic down whichever detour she chooses.

Never has the world #1, already a three-time champion over the last four years, seemed as sure a shot in Paris to win the Roland Garros crown as she did going into this year's tournament. And that's *after* she had to fight off three MP vs. Aryna Sabalenka in the Madrid final *and* lost to Elena Rybakina in Stuttgart during the spring EuroClay lead-up stretch.

Her win in the Italian Open made her just the third woman -- with Dinara Safina (2009) and Serena Williams (2013) -- to pull off the Madrid/Rome double, and now she's on to hunting down even bigger feats. Williams is the only one to follow up the "dirty double" with a title run in Paris, and in the Open era only Monica Seles (1990-92) and Justine Henin (2005-06) have accomplished the RG three-peat that the Pole is seeking two weekends from now.

To come up with a scenario where Swiatek doesn't lift the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen (and then have the lid fall off in the process) requires a fair amount of speculation and weaving-of-tales. Maybe Osaka or Collins can out-hit her? Or maybe Vondrousova can vex her? Or maybe Ostapenko can keep it together and reach the semis and see if her undefeated-vs.-Iga record can hold up on the terre battue? Or maybe Rybakina's Rome pull-out wasn't the red flag it appeared to be, *and* she can get past Sabalenka and into the final? Or, hey, maybe Sabalenka can make a third big clay final of the spring vs. Swiatek finally be the charm?

One or a few of those things *could* happen, but it's more likely that most or maybe none of them will.

Swiatek's latest Parisian working vacation kicked off with a Day 2 1st Rounder vs. Pastry Leolia Jeanjean, making an appearance after being left off the wild card list by the FFT (hey, she has "FRA" by the name -- what's the problem?) but finding her way in via the qualifying route, anyway.

Swiatek was masterful in the 1st, and a bit less so in the 2nd (a few too many UE early), but used an ultra-aggressive game to dominate the proceedings, winning 6-1/6-2 to improve to 20-1 in slam 1st Rounders.



Swiatek has now won 14 straight matches at Roland Garros, and 13 straight on clay this spring. If she takes the title, the resulting 19-match run would surpass her own career-best 18-match clay streak in her (so far) career year of 2022, and would tie Venus Williams (2004) for the fourth longest clay streak this century (28-Serena, 27-Henin, 21-Sharapova).

15-1 on the dirt in '24, Swiatek is 71-6 on clay since the start of her breakout run at RG in 2020. There are no "what if," "maybe" or "possibly" qualifiers in those stats. So, you know, the rest of this slam very well could be about watching those numbers continue to tick upward until the start of the grass season.

But, hey, all hope isn't totally lost for a different storyline to play out in Paris. Maybe Iga will remember to put her hand on the trophy's lid this time around... or maybe someone will sneak in a bagel or part of a baguette when no one is looking and an "instant classic" moment will be born in tennis history.

If things go according to plan, it might turn out to be the biggest surprise of the entire women's competition.




=DAY 2 NOTES=
...while there were a few big comebacks on Day 1, none of those situations involved a player winning after having been MP down. Well, that changed on Monday.

Camila Osorio dropped the opening set vs. Anhelina Kalinina, and soon fell behind 4-1 in the 2nd. The Colombian pulled closer, but Kalinina still found herself serving for the win at 6-3/6-5. She took a 40/love lead, only to see Osorio fight off all three MP and then go on to take a 7-2 TB to force a 3rd set.



But the 3rd didn't turn into some dramatic dance on the dirt. Instead, Kalinina went from a swing away from a win to being forced to retire down 4-1 in the decider as Osorio clocked in with her first slam MD victory since *last* year's 1st Round in Paris.

Kalinina is the second Ukrainian to retire from a 1st Round match at this RG (joining, well, you know), as (perhaps more than a bit unironically) the nation's contingent has had to fight long and hard for everything at this slam. Aside from the two retirements, wins have come after simply being down a set (Dayana Yastremska yesterday, Elina Svitolina today), or in the case of Marta Kostyuk after being a point away from falling into a 5-0 crater in the 3rd set.

...there haven't been a great many seeded women sent out so far, with still another day of 1st Round action left tomorrow, but a big one went out on Day 2 in the form of #6 Maria Sakkari.



Varvara Gracheva's three-set win gives the Hordette-turned-Pastry her fourth career Top 10 triumph, but her first in her maiden RG while playing under France's Tricolour.

The loss comes as a jolt to Sakkari's tennis soul, as she finally bit the proverbial bullet and made a long overdue coaching change earlier this season, exchanging Tom Hill for David Witt. Things have been going well, too. She came into Paris at 17-7 in the new set-up, reaching the Indian Wells final, Charleston SF and Miami QF. Interestingly, this loss comes just days after Hill's newest charge, Peyton Stearns, won her maiden tour title in Rabat (already moving her one crown away from matching the Sakkari/Hill output over six-plus seasons).

If Maria was instead named Emma, Witt might be out by the end of the week. But he's likely safe, as he should be.

What this result does highlight is that you can change the coach but (at least in a major) you're still left with the same Greek, now the lone common denominator in a slide that has seen Sakkari exit in the 1st Round at four of the last five slams (going 1-5 overall). Since 2021 (when she reached the RG/US semis) she is now a combined 10-10 in 2022-24 slam competition as a Top 8 seed, never once holding her seed with a QF result. In fact, the only two QF in her slam career came during those two SF runs about three months apart three seasons ago.

Gracheva has five 1st Round exits in her slam career, but they're spread out over 15 majors. She's posted MD wins in 10 of those 15 events, and reached the 3rd Round five times thus far. An under-the-radar good big-stage player -- her four career Top 10 wins have come at RG, the AO, Indian Wells and Miami -- this win puts Gracheva over .500 (at 14-13) in slam play.



...early on Monday, though it had nothing to do with what former Hordette Gracheva would do later in the day, the Hordette Day 1 debacle (0-3) was (partially) reversed on Day 2. First, in immediate fashion, thanks to a match-up of countrywoman in which Anastasia Potapova defeated Kamilla Rakhimova, and then later when #17 Liudmila Samsonova (off her Strasbourg SF), #20 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and #23 Anna Kalinskaya added to the overall Day 2 success.

One player who didn't add something good to the Parisian mix was #16 Ekaterina Alexandrova, who became the second seeded Hordette to fall in this RG's first two days. Of course, it shouldn't come as a *huge* shock, considering she didn't get her first clay win of the season until last week, and now ends it at 1-6. And unless something changes, she won't likely be back in Paris for the Olympics, either, as though the Russian #3 is eligible ranking-wise, and the IOC recently lifted the Olympic ban for some RUS/BLR athletes, the rules still leave tennis athletes wanting since previous and ongoing bans from BJK/DC Cup play mean they still haven't been able to meet *that* eligibility requirement (which still remains, as of now).

Alexandrova's loss adds another line to the career bio of Viktoriya Tomova, as the Bulgarian notched her first Top 20 victim with the win. Tomova was beaten by Alexandrova in the 1st Round in Paris *last* year.

Tomova, who rebounded well after coming up short in last week's Rabat SF in which she led Stearns 4-1 in the 3rd, now has MD wins at three of the last four majors and played in the MD in six straight. Previously, she'd been 2-7 in nine major MD spread out over five and a half seasons from 2018-23 (and lost 17 times in qualifying from 2016-22).

While Alexandrova won't have a chance to add to the numbers, at least one Hordette has reached the 3rd Round of 91 of 93 slams.

Russia entered this event with 15 MD participants, one behind the U.S., which went to 16 with the addition of LL Hailey Baptiste, for the most women in the MD. Five more Hordettes are still set to play 1st Round matches on Tuesday, with the nation standing at 4-6 overall. The Bannerettes are 7-3 -- after wins today from the likes of #3 Coco Gauff, #11 Danielle Collins, Bernarda Pera and Baptiste -- with six more to go tomorrow.

The U.S. seems likely to push the most women into the 2nd Round, continuing the success of the Bannerettes as a whole all season.

At the moment, the U.S. has two women ranked in the Top 5 (though that could change after Jessie Pegula's withdrawal, as she's been out with injury since the BJK Playoffs), three in the Top 10, four in the Top 12, and five in the Top 25. U.S. women lead the tour in singles titles (7) and finals (8, w/ the lone loss coming in an all-Bannerette contest).

Meanwhile, Five different U.S. players have won tour singles titles (a tour best), with two of them being first-time champs (tops in '24), and this past Saturday saw *two* Bannerettes win titles on the same weekend for the first time in nearly a decade, with one of the finals being the first all-USA final on red clay since 2016.





...ANOTHER BAD/EMBARRASSING THING ABOUT ARGUING OVER SCRATCHES IN THE DIRT (sudden head bonks)... ON DAY 2:




...GREATEST WeAreTennis.com PROMOTIONAL STUNT EVER!... ON DAY 2:




...CAN WIMBLEDON GET ONE OF THOSE TO COMBAT THE CONFETTI/PUZZLE PIECE LITTERERS AT THE AELTC?... ON DAY 2:



If so, *then* we can deal with the people who'll glue their feet to the floor at Flushing Meadows. Or, you know, maybe Tao will work there, too.























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The roof is nice, but I miss the old Court Suzanne Lenglen look...




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*SWIATEK - CAREER WTA TITLES BY NATION*
5 - USA
3 - FRA,ITA,QAT
2 - GER
1 - AUS,CHN,ESP,MEX,POL

*LONG WTA (MD only) WINNING STREAKS - 2024*
15 - Danielle Collins (March-April; ended by Sabalenka)
13 - IGA SWIATEK (April-active) *
10 - Coco Gauff (January; ended by Sabalenka)
--
UNDEFEATED NOTE: Pliskova (9 WTA MD, walkover loss, then 2 more)



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TOP QUALIFIER: Jule Niemeier/GER
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): xx
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q2: Raluca Serban/CYP def. Dominika Salkova/CZE 3-6/6-4/7-6(13-11) - both served for win in 3rd, w/ Salkova 2 MP, then third in TB; Serban wins 24-point MTB
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): xx
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-RD. MATCH (SF-F/Jr.-WC): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: Donna Vekic/CRO (def. Tsurenko/UKR ret.)
FIRST SEED OUT: #29 Veronika Kudermetova/RUS (1r: Bouzkova/CZE)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: x
UPSET QUEENS: x
REVELATION LADIES: x
NATION OF POOR SOULS: x
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: 1r wins: Danilovic/SRB, Volynets/USA, Zidansek/SLO
LUCKY LOSER WINS: 1r wins: Baptiste/USA, Fett/CRO
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: 1r wins: Paquet/FRA
PROTECTED RANKING WINS: 1r wins: Andreescu/CAN, Anisimova/USA, Begu/ROU, Osaka/JPN
LAST PASTRY STANDING: 1r wins: Garcia, Gracheva, Paquet, Parry
Ms./Mademoiselle OPPORTUNITY: x
IT "TBD": x
COMEBACK PLAYER: x
CRASH & BURN: Nominees: #6 Sakkari (lost 1st Rd. 4 of 5 slams); #24 Krejcikova (1st Rd.- 0-3 since '21 title)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF PARIS: Nominees: Fett (LL; 1st Rd.- down 4-1 3rd vs. Bouzas Maneiro and rain, Bouzas Maneiro served at 5-3, Fett wins 7-5 for first slam win since '18); Kostyuk (1st Rd.- down 4-0 and 2 GP for 5-0 in 3rd vs. Pigossi, 4-2 and rain suspension, wins 6-4; Osorio (1st Rd.- down set and 6-5, 3 MP at love/40 vs. Kalinina)
DOUBLES STAR: x
VETERAN PLAYER (KIMIKO CUP): x
Mademoiselle/Madame OF THE EVENING: x
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: x
Légion de Lenglen: x
Coupe LA PETIT TAUREAU: Nominee: Iga attempt at first three-peat since Henin in 2007






All for Day 2. More tomorrow.
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