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Friday, July 5, 2024

W.5- Paula's Back


If this Wimbledon is to be a potential Land of Opportunity, there might be no possible contender more grateful to be included in that mix than Paula Badosa.



A year ago, the Spaniard retired from her 2nd Round match at Wimbledon due to a stress fracture in her back that had occurred earlier in the spring. She'd missed Roland Garros due to the injury, and after things proved to be a no-go at SW19 she missed the rest of the 2023 season. Badosa began this year at 6-9, retiring from three matches over the first four months. She was beginning to wonder if she was ever going to reclaim what had become a sterling tennis career.

In the two seasons before her injury, Badosa (a junior slam champ in Paris in '15) was a rising star. In 2021, she reached the RG QF, won Indian Wells and played in the semis in Madrid. In 2022 , she returned to the I.W. SF, and reached the QF in Miami. She went 3-0 in tour-level singles finals those two years, climbed to #2 in the world, and collected eleven Top 10 wins from '21 into the opening months of the '23 season before she was hurt.

Badosa fell in the 1st Round in Madrid to countrywoman Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in April, and little did anyone know that things would soon take a turn for the much better for her. Gradually showing herself to seemingly be over the lingering aspects that plagued her back, she began to get some of her old form back as she was able to put matches together. Badosa emerged from the Madrid loss and reached the Round of 16 in Rome, then the 3rd Round at RG. A QF last week in Bad Homburg was a good sign, and she continued her surge at the AELTC with wins over Czechs Karolina Muchova and Brenda Fruhvirtova this week. Then came her 3rd Round match today vs. #14 Dasha Kasatkina.

The Russian entered the day having won a title this past weekend in Eastbourne, was on a seven-match win streak and had swept her last nineteen games at SW19, including a double-bagel victory in the 2nd Round.

Kasatkina wasn't in the frame of mind to lose today, and it showed. After falling behind 5-2 in the 1st, saving three Badosa SP, the Hordette frustrated the Spaniard with her variety-filled game. Badosa came back with power, leading 15/30 at 6-5, but Kasatkina forced a TB. A 2-0 mini-break lead from Badosa became a 3-2 edge for Kasatkina. The Russian got within two points of the set at 5-4, but Badosa put on another push in the rollercoaster set. A forehand winner gave her a fourth SP at 6-5. Finally, on her fifth attempt, Badosa saw Kasatkina miss wide with a forehand to give the Spaniard an 8-6 win.

Having emerged triumphant from the fight, Badosa dropped her racket and clenched both fists, then shook one in the air as she went to her chair. And that was after just the *1st* set.

Kasatkina wasn't going away. She took the 2nd set 6-4, then led 4-2 in the 3rd. But Badosa got the break back in game 7 (on her third BP), and the battle was back on. Firing back from 15/40 down, Badosa soon held for 4-4, then her big shots gave her a 15/40 lead on Kasatkina's serve in the following game. She broke on her third BP of the game when Kasatkina netted a volley.

Serving for the win at 5-4, Badosa reached MP when Kasatkina missed on a big shot attempt down the line. She put away the victory in the nearly three-hour contest at the net, as Kasatkina netted Badosa's match-closing mid-court volley, ending the 7-6(6)/4-6/6-4 3rd Rounder in which Kasatkina's final set lead wasn't so much squandered as Badosa *took* it away from the Russian with more aggression and better big point moments.



The stats showed just how much Badosa's game pushed the action, as her 44 winners were combined with 57 UE. She had eight aces, and 24 net approaches (winning 16 points there). With her third Wimbledon Round of 16 in four years, the Spaniard's season numbers in the majors -- 3r-3r-4r and counting -- are now evidence of a gradual return to form. #93 coming into this Wimbledon, Badosa is now back in the Top 65 in the live rankings. Since that 6-9 start, she's gone 10-3 this spring/summer.

But all that takes second place to, finally, "Paula's back" no longer being the story, but that Paula IS back taking the lead after a whole lot of hard work, patience and the belief that it wasn't over until *she* decided that it was so. Gratefully, it wasn't.







=DAY 5 NOTES=
...while Badosa's Wimbledon run is getting more and more traction and attention, that of Lulu Sun's has taken place *mostly* under the radar. But the New Zealander is now officially making some history.



After a 1st Round win over #8 Zheng Qinwen (her first Top 10 victim), Sun took out fellow qualifier Yuliia Starodubtseva in a second three-setter. Today Zhu Lin fell 7-6(4)/7-6(6), as the world #123 became not only the first Kiwi to reach the Wimbledon Round of 16, but the first to do so in the Open era at any slam other than Belinda Cordwell. Cordwell reached the AO 4th Round in 1988, and in '89 returned and played into the semifinals. Since then... nothing, until today.

Sun represents something of a combination of a "We Are the World" version of a WTA player *and* a blueprint for success that is becoming more and more common on both tours. She was born in New Zealand to Croatian and Chinese parents, was raised in Switzerland, and played NCAA ball in the U.S. (who hasn't at this point?) at Texas (the Longhorn women's tennis Twitter feed has essentially become the Lulu Sun News over the past week). Save for playing under the NZL flag in 2018 in the Wimbledon juniors, she played for SUI until April of this year.

Though she reached a tour-level QF in 2022 (Seoul), 2024 has been a breakout year for Sun, who made her slam MD debut at the AO (as a qualifier), and won two ($100K & $50K, and an $80K in '23) of her three biggest singles titles. Now she's into the second week of a major (her best result in WTA/slam play since Seoul), has qualified for the Olympics, and has cracked the Top 100 (likely inside the Top 75).



...while we wait to see whether we'll ever get anything other than flashes of the player that Bianca Andreescu was a few years ago (we've gotten a few over the past few weeks, and did so again today), we're still in the phase of crossing fingers and hoping she can stay on the court long enough to eventually maybe get there. We have no such worries and wonders about #7 Jasmine Paolini.



The Italian breath of fresh air has been a joy all year long, and she's having an pretty incredible season, too. Paolini has sparked on the biggest stages and all surfaces, winning a 1000 title in Dubai, reaching SF or better on hard court, clay *and* grass (Eastbourne), playing in a pair of slam finals (RG singles and doubles) and climbing into the Top 10.

Paolini and Andreescu met in the 3rd Round at RG, as well, with the Italian taking a three-set win with a love 3rd.

Against Andreescu, after the Canadian held in a tight game to force a 1st set TB, Paolini weathered the storm as Andreescu would seem to grab the advantage but then not be able to hold onto it. Andreescu fired a second serve return long to go down 5-4, then saw a forehand error give Paolini a SP. Paolini won the breaker 7-4, then took off in the 2nd set, winning 7-6(4)/6-1 to reach the 4th Round at a *third* straight major this season.

She's a second week run in New York later this summer from spinning a Career Slam Round of 16 from *nothing*, and doing so in an eight-month span. Sort of like when her countrywomen Errani & Vinci completed a Career Doubles Slam, winning five crowns in a little over two years from 2012-14... but even *better*. Well, sorta... quicker, at least.

Meanwhile, while the Quartet seemingly broke *all* the records for Italian women's tennis, Paolini this season has found a way to carve out some history of her own. The miraculous slam result turnaround (4-16 in major MD to now 12-2 in '24) is enough, but now it can be said that no woman from her nation has *ever* put up this many wins and been this consistent through the first three slams of a season.



...but what about the Bannerettes the day *after* the Fourth of July? Well, they pulled off a clean sweep of three matches on Day 5.

#12 Madison Keys defeated #18 Marta Kostyuk in straights, not allowing the Ukrainian to stage a comeback in the 2nd set after having done so so often in slam play this season. She broke Kostyuk's serve on her second MP to end the contest, not giving her a chance to get an eleventh hour break a game later to possibly stay alive (again) when Keys would have been serving for the match at 5-4.

It's Keys' fourth straight Wimbledon Round of 16 (20th overall in her slam career), and improves her mark in majors over the last three seasons to 27-8.



#19 Emma Navarro continues to pick up steam. After dominating Naomi Osaka, today she came back from a set down to get some revenge on Diana Shnaider for a three-set loss in last week's Bad Homburg semis. In a match-up of a former NCAA champion (Navarro while at Virginia in 2021) and in-season NCAA #1 (Shnaider this past school year at N.C. State), Navarro won 2-6/6-3/6-4 to advance to her second straight 4th Round at a major.



With hard, flat shots that give opponents less time to prepare, Navarro's game fits the grass. Emotionally steady and not likely to get overwhelmed (at least not openly) by the moment, Navarro has as good a shot as any if a surprise semifinalist is going to emerge in the bottom half of the draw. During one of her earlier matches this week, the ESPN commentators talked about Navarro having more power on her shots than would seem to be the case just by looking at her, which sort of made me think of how similarly the likes of Justine Henin was described.

Navarro will have perhaps her biggest test in the Round of 16, though, in the form of #2 Coco Gauff.



Not surprisingly, Gauff made fairly quick work of British qualifier Sonay Kartal today, winning 6-4/6-0 to reach her fourth straight slam 4th Round (she's had three SF+ results in a row, all since her 1st Round defeat at *last* year's Wimbledon).

The U.S. still has a shot to push two *more* women into the Final 16, as Danielle Collins and Bernarda Pera play on Saturday.

...while Kartal was ousted today, and Harriet Dart plays tomorrow, wild card Emma Raducanu assured that a British woman will play in the second week as she punched her ticket to her third career slam 4th Round -- the first time she's done that since winning the U.S. Open three seasons ago -- with a 6-2/6-3 win over Maria Sakkari. Raducanu defeated Sakkari in the semifinals in New York en route to her slam win in '21. Back then, Sakkari was the #17 seed, while this time she's #9 and provides the Brit with her second career Top 10 win. Her first came just last week.



And now we wait to see if white puffs of smoke appear above the Sakkari encampment, signaling that another firing has taken place.

...in the final women's match of the day, Donna Vekic made good use of second chances.

In the 1st set, the Croat couldn't serve things out at 5-4 vs. #28 Dayana Yastremska, and then two games later had to save three SP in a five-deuce hold that forced a TB. Vekic won it 7-4. In the 2nd, Vekic didn't convert a MP at 6-5 and then saw the AO semifinalist win a 7-3 TB to force a 3rd set.

In the decider, though, Vekic raced to a 5-1 lead, then finally broke Yastremska to end the match, locking away her ninth MP (eighth in game 7) to win 7-6(4)/6-7(3)/6-1. It's her first Round of 16 at SW19 since 2018.



...at one point this spring Diede de Groot had won 145 straight matches dating back to January 2021. That streak ended (albeit in a team event) a bit before Roland Garros. Well, now the world #1 has *two* losss on the season, after Yui Kamiji -- yes, YUI KAMIJI -- finally took down her Dutch rival after losing to her 28 straight times (as well as 35 times in their last 36 meetings). The 7-5/6-3 win in the final at Roehampton is Kamiji's third win in the event, but first since 2017. Thus, de Groot's run of 40 consecutive singles event titles comes to an end.



It's not as if Kamiji's hasn't been *close* to finally getting another win over de Groot. Since she defeated her in a January '21 tournament in Australia (before that year's AO) just before the start of the 145-match winning streak, Kamiji took de Groot to three sets in three straight matches in '23, and earlier this season in the Melbourne Open led 5-1 in the 3rd set and held a MP before de Groot's stunning comeback to get the victory. She then went on to win a fourth straight AO title.

This result ends de Groot's 14-match win streak since her loss to Li Xiaohui in the World Team Cup, but she's still 32-2 on the season. It *will* make de Groot's quest to win her 15th consecutive slam singles title starting next week at SW19 all that much more interesting. She's won the Wimbledon title the last three years, and at five of the last six competitions at SW19. Meanwhile, Kamiji has reached the Wimbledon final just once, in 2022, while doing so, in order, 9, 8 and 9 times at the other three majors.

Due to continual rain, the doubles final that featured Kamiji & Kgothatso Montjane was abandoned after being stopped just four games into play.

...meanwhile, the Roehampton junior champ is #14-seeded Serb Teodora Kostovic, who outlasted #5 Iva Jovic in the final, winning 2-6/6-3/7-6(2). It's the 17-year old's third career J300 win, but the first one this season.





*WOMEN'S SINGLES ROUND OF 16*
x vs. x
x vs. x
x vs. x
x vs. x
(Q) Lulu Sun/NZL vs. (WC) Emma Raducanu/GBR
(PR) Paula Badosa/ESP vs. Donna Vekic/CRO
#7 Jasmine Paolini/ITA vs. #12 Madison Keys/USA
#19 Emma Navarro/USA vs. #2 Coco Gauff/USA






...ONE WORD: "PLASTICS"... ON DAY 5:




...A REAL FOOTBALLER (wink-wink) IN ATTENDANCE... ON DAY 5:











Oh, Cyndi...













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*WIMBLEDON "LAST QUALIFIER STANDING" - since 2017*
=2017=
Petra Martic, CRO (4th Rd.)
=2018=
Evgeniya Rodina, RUS (4th Rd.)
=2019=
Coco Cauff, USA (4th Rd.)
=2021=
Maria (Camila Osorio) Serrano, COL (3rd Rd.)
=2022=
M.Chwalinska/POL, C.Harrison/USA, M.Hontama/JPN, K.Kawa/POL, Y.Wickmayer/BEL (all 2nd Rd.)
=2023=
Mirra Andreeva, RUS (4th Rd.)
=2024=
Lulu Sun, NZL (in 4th Rd.)


*ROEHAMPTON CHAMPS, w/ WIMBLEDON JR. RESULT*
1996 Amelie Mauresmo, FRA = won Wimbledon Jr. title
1997 Brie Rippner, USA = lost Wimb.Jr. F
1998 Jelena Dokic, AUS = lost Wimb.Jr. SF
1999 Lina Krasnoroutskaya, RUS = lost Wimb.Jr. F
2000 Aniko Kapros, HUN = lost Wimb.Jr. QF
2001 Gisela Dulko, ARG = lost Wimb.Jr. 3r
2002 Vera Dushevina, RUS = won Wimbledon Jr. title
2003 Allison Baker, USA = lost Wimb.Jr. QF
2004 Michaella Krajicek, NED = lost Wimb.Jr. SF
2005 Caroline Wozniacki, DEN = lost Wimb.Jr. 1r
2006 Kristina Antoniychuk, UKR = lost Wimb.Jr. 3r
2007 Petra Kvitova, CZE = lost Wimb.Jr. 3r
2008 Melanie Oudin, USA = lost Wimb.Jr. 2r
2009 Kristina Mladenovic, FRA = lost Wimb.Jr. F
2010 Kristyna Pliskova, CZE = won Wimbledon Jr. title
2011 Indy de Vroome, NED = lost Wimb.Jr. SF
2012 Genie Bouchard, CAN = won Wimbledon Jr. title
2013 Belinda Bencic, SUI = won Wimbledon Jr. title
2014 Alona Ostapenko, LAT = won Wimbledon Jr. title
2015 Dalma Galfi, HUN = lost Wimb.Jr. 1r
2016 Anastasia Potapova, RUS = won Wimbledon Jr. title
2017 Claire Liu, USA = won Wimbledon Jr. title
2018 Coco Gauff, USA = lost Wimb.Jr. QF
2019 Daria Snigur, UKR = won Wimbledon Jr. title
2021 Linda Fruhvirtova, CZE = lost Wimb.Jr. SF
2022 Liv Hovde, USA = won Wimbledon Jr. title
2023 Renata Jamrichova, SVK = lost Wimb.Jr. SF
2024 Teodora Kostovic, SRB

*ROEHAMPTON/WIMBLEDON GIRLS' CHAMPS IN SEASON*
1996 Amelie Mauresmo, FRA
2002 Vera Dushevina, RUS
2010 Kristyna Pliskova, CZE
2012 Genie Bouchard, CAN
2013 Belinda Bencic, SUI
2014 Alona Ostapenko, LAT
2016 Anastasia Potapova, RUS
2017 Claire Liu, USA
2019 Daria Snigur, UKR
2022 Liv Hovde, USA



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TOP QUALIFIER: Katie Volynets/USA
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): #14 Dasha Kasatkina/RUS
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): x
TOP LATE-ROUND (SF-F): x
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q2 -Robin Montgomery/USA def. #10 Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS 7-6(0)/6-7(4)/7-6(10-4) - no breaks in 36 games, only 5 BP face; Montgomery w/ 20 aces; combined for 132 winners (67/65)
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): 2nd Rd. - #18 Marta Kostyuk/UKR def. Dasha Saville/AUS 4-6/7-6(2)/6-4 - Saville served for match three times in 2nd set, had a MP; Kostyuk break on BP #8 of game to force TB; Kostyuk wins on MP #5 in 3rd set
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): x
TOP LATE-RD. MATCH (SF-F/Jr.-WC): x
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: Varvara Gracheva/FRA (def. Lesia Tsurenko/UKR)
FIRST SEED OUT: #8 Zheng Qinwen/CHN (1st Rd. to Sun/NZL) (after #22 Alexandrova/RUS, #3 Sabalenka/BLR and #16 Azarenka/BLR withdrew)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: Day 1: Erika Andreeva/RUS, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro/ESP, Sonay Kartal/GBR, Robin Montgomery/USA, Yuliia Starodubtseva/UKR, Lulu Sun/NZL, Anca Todoni/ROU
UPSET QUEENS: Spain
REVELATION LADIES: Great Britain
NATION OF POOR SOULS: ROU (1-5 1st Rd.; #29 Cirstea out, Bogdan 2 MP, no Halep
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: Lulu Sun/NZL (in 4th Rd.)
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: in 3r: Raducanu/GBR, Wozniacki/DEN
PROTECTED RANKING: Paula Badosa/ESP (in 4r), Bianca Andreescu/CAN (3r)
LUCKY LOSER WINNERS: Erika Andreeva/RUS (2nd)
LAST BRIT STANDING: in 3r: Dart, Kartal(L), Raducanu
Ms. OPPORTUNITY: x
IT "??": Nominee: Sun ("Kiwi"), Navarro ("NCAAer")
COMEBACK PLAYER: Nominee: Badosa
CRASH & BURN: #6 Marketa Vondrousova/CZE (1st Rd. to Bouzas Maneiro/ESP; first defending champ out 1r since 1994 Graf loss vs. McNeil; second in Open era)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF LONDON: Nominees: Kostyuk (2nd Rd.- down 5-2 vs. Saville in 3rd, who served for win three times and held MP; in '24 slams has won from MP down at AO/WI, and 4-0 down in 3rd at RG); Pera (1st Rd.-MP vs. Potapova); Wozniacki (2nd Rd.-2 MP vs. Fernandez); Badosa (3rd Rd. - down 4-2 vs. Kasatkina in 3rd)
DOUBLES STAR: x
VETERAN PLAYER (KIMIKO CUP): x
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: x
SPIRIT OF JANA (NOVOTNA) HONOREE: Nominee: Jabeur slam quest






All for Day 5. More tomorrow.
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