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Tuesday, July 9, 2024

W.9- Vekic Reins in the Sun


Sometimes the "B" story outshines the "A" story, even if the latter involves a Sun.



As the rain came down on the Court 1 roof, Donna Vekic and Lulu Sun faced off in a quarterfinal battle to see which would be the first maiden slam semifinalist identified for this Wimbledon.

While the continuation of the New Zealander's surprise run in just her second major MD would have made for a nice story, it's also heartwarming to see a veteran such as the Croat, who has been through the ringer often enough over the years during an often injury-thwarted career that she nearly walked away from the sport more than once, rise to the occasion and seize a golden opportunity in her *43rd* attempt, marking hers as the fifth-longest wait in tour history to finally come to an end.

Sun, the first qualifier in the SW19 quarters since 2010 (and the first Kiwi to post such a slam result since 1989), had traversed an unconventional road by longtime tennis standards to get here, though the NCAA-honed path is becoming more and more common these days and seems likely to be even more well-traveled after the success of so many; but Vekic's personal journey, unfortunately, involves a story we've heard before, as the tennis tour has a tendency to wear down (both physically and psychologically) even the most talented individual athletes. Nothing is guaranteed, nor comes easy, and "later-career" success (the Croatian is now 28) almost assuredly arrives at the back of many questions and disappointments overcome along the way.

Vekic's on-court results in years past often throttled between encouraging and frustrating (she won "Good Donna" and "Bad Donna" Spirit of Jana awards in this space a few years back), and then there have been the injuries, most notably foot surgery in early 2021 that led to a comeback that has gradually played out over two-plus seasons, sometimes taking two steps forward and another back as Vekic's patience and commitment were only further tested.

Vekic climbed into the Top 20 five years ago, getting as high as #19, only see the calamity that was the 2020 WTA schedule halt whatever momentum that might have facilitated. The knee surgery occurred after the Australian Open the following season, and it caused her to have difficulty training and playing enough to get into the shape necessary for success by the time she returned in June. She won a surprise tour singles title late in the year in Courmayeur, her first since '17, which proved to be an encouraging sign, but it'd be another year and a half before she's win another (in Monterrey). Still, she continued to re-climb the tour ladder, returning to the Top 50 during the '22 season even while still having to deal with injuries (notably her foot) that slowed her progress.

In 2023, Vekic reached her first slam QF (AO) since 2018, and returned to the Top 25. She started the year 14-2. But beginning with her Wimbledon 3rd Round loss to Marketa Vondrousova (the eventual champ), Vekic closed the season on a 3-10 slide. Earlier this year in Dubai, a win over #2 Aryna Sabalenka was Vekic's best since 2019. A semi (Linz) and quarterfinal (San Diego) early in the year soon became a spring stretch when she went 2-6 heading into Roland Garros. She lost in the 3rd Round in a final set MTB vs. Olga Danilovic (after winning the 1st set at love, and serving for the match twice in the 3rd, then led 6-3 in the 10-point breaker and came up a point short of holding a late MP at 8-7).

Vekic rebounded on the grass, on which she's proven to be an adept over the years, reaching five tour-level finals on the surface (winning Nottingham seven seasons ago). This year, she played all three weeks heading into SW19, ultimately reaching the Bad Homburg final the weekend before Wimbledon's start. She came into today on a 7-1 grass court run that, after being just 8-9 in her SW19 career before this year, brought her to her maiden Wimbledon QF.

Sun would give her a big fight, but Vekic's experience and resilience proved to (finally) be the difference in the end.

From the outset of the contest, the New Zealand lefty's game continued to radiate the winners and effective serving that allowed her to stand toe-to-toe with Vekic and beyond, consistently rising whenever an opportunity dawned for the Croatian.

In game 4, Sun held firm in what turned out to be a 26-point game, saving three BP with a big serve, a deep error-inducing groundstroke and a bad bounce that skidded under Vekic's racket. The Kiwi fired an ace to hold for 2-2. Vekic saved a BP to hold for 4-3, keeping a step ahead on the scoreboard, but after taking a 5-4 lead couldn't get the break to claim the set despite a love/30 edge on Sun's serve. An ace and slicing serve into the Croatian's body helped Sun get the hold to keep pace in the opening set yet again.

Sun proved the more fortunate of the two a game later, taking a love/30 lead on Vekic's serve. Vekic put in an ace, but a forehand error put her down double break point at 15/40. A long forehand on the second BP handed Sun the break and a chance to serve out the set. Sun fell behind 15/30, saved a BP with a big serve down the T, and claimed the opener at 7-5 with a winning drop shot.

After a series of quick holds by both women in the 2nd, Vekic took a 15/40 lead at 4-3 on Sun's serve. A deep return forced an error and the Croat finally recorded her first break of the day. At SP a game later, Vekic was tied up by a deep return shot from Sun, then began a stretch in which she DF'd on three occasions to hand the New Zealander a trio of BP.

Sun got the break to get back on serve at 5-4, but after having saved a MP in qualifying, notched a Top 10 win early last week, then defeated a Brit on Centre Court to reach the QF, her magical trip to England finally ran out of steam. Unable to carry over her momentum, she dropped serve for a second straight time. Vekic's drop shot secured a 6-4 win.

From there, it was all Vekic, who dominated the 3rd set and soared into her maiden major semifinal.

Vekic swept the first 13 points of the set (16 straight overall). Though she stopped the point streak, Sun was broken yet again to fall behind 4-0. Vekic held for 5-0, having won 20 of 24 points in the set. Sun got on the board with a late hold, but Vekic responded with another love hold to close out a 5-7/6-4/6-1 win, her fourth three-set victory through five SW19 rounds, while dropping just two points on serve in the 3rd.



Sun's London heater jumps her from #123 to #53 in the live rankings, and now she'll join the mix of the many former college players (and even a fellow former Texas Longhorn, hello Peyton Stearns) looking to make a mark on the regular tour.



Meanwhile, Vekic's win brings Wimbledon *this close* to a repeat of last year, when Vondrousova became the first unseeded women's champion in the Open era, and at #42 the lowest-ranked, as well. Were she to win the whole thing, Vekic's #37 standing would be the second-lowest ever.










=DAY 9 NOTES=
...going into the day, it was already assured that there'd be at least one first-time slam semifinalist at this major, as three of the four women in action had never before advanced so far. Vekic and Sun settled the matter of the guaranteed spot early in the day.

So, updating the numbers, that means, while eight of the nine slam titles collected since Ash Barty's retirement have been won by the four players currently stationed at the top of the rankings (4 by Swiatek, 2 by Sabalenka, and 1 each by Gauff and Rybakina), there has also been one or more first-timer in the final four at 16 of 18 majors in the 2020s (including two each at the first two played in '24).

Later in what was a rain-soaked day (no matches on the roof-less courts were played, meaning a whopping 91 matches were cancelled from a schedule that was already packed with matches from the various competitions after a rainy first week), #19 Emma Navarro tried to also become a first-time semifinalist as she squared off with #7 Jasmine Paolini, who became a newbie last month en route to the RG final in Paris.

This one seemed as if it'd be a truly competitive fight, but Paolini shut that down pretty fast, and most definitely succinctly. After escaping her 4th Rounder when Madison Keys pulled up lame after leading 5-2 in the 3rd, the Italian upped the level of her aggressive and opportunistic gameplan against a Bannerette with less power behind her shots (as most all do) than Keys. Paolini played almost exclusively on or inside the baseline, moving forward and controlling the course of the entire match. Whether Navarro was intimidated by the style, felt the pressure simply came up well short in the biggest match of her career so far, or had the inevitable emotional letdown after such a big win over #2 Coco Gauff in the previous round, this one did not really go as hardly anyone expected.



Even with a career 0-3 mark vs. Navarro in matches played (all on hard court) over the past year, Paolini jumped on Navarro with control-seizing breaks in both sets -- at 4-2 (after Navarro has struck first with a break advantage for 2-1 in the 1st) and 3-1, respectively -- and didn't let up. Navarro never won a point on her second serve (0/10), while Paolini won 16/17 points at the net, totaling 23 winners in 15 games en route to a dominant 6-2/6-1 win in under an hour.

Paolini had a slow climb to become a top player, but now that she's gotten there she's really spreading her wings wide. With back-to-back slam semifinals, she's now the first Italian to reach the final four at SW19. The Quartet left little room for Italian "firsts," but Paolini is still wiggling her way into her nation's record books.



Now 14-2 in majors in '24 after being 4-16 before this season, Paolini is flirting with *all* the ranking highs of even the very best Quartet members. At #5 in the live rankings, she's assured of tying doubles partner Sara Errani's career best standing (#5 in '2013) in the next rankings, one better than the Quartet's second highest-ranker (Flavia Pennetta, #6 in '15) and one behind the all-time ITA best (#4 in '11) by Francesca Schiavone. Roberta Vinci topped out at #7 in 2016. Paolini could still climb as high as #4.



Back in 2021, (a very different) Paolini lost 2 & love in the Courmayeur (indoor HC) semifinals to Vekic in the Croat's comeback tour title after knee surgery. Paolini has won the other two HC encounters, most recently last summer in Montreal.







*WOMEN'S SINGLES QF*
#13 Alona Ostapenko/LAT vs. #31 Barbora Krejcikova/CZE
#4 Elena Rybakina/KAZ vs. #21 Elina Svitolina/UKR
Donna Vekic/CRO def. (Q) Lulu Sun/NZL
#7 Jasmine Paolini/ITA def. #19 Emma Navarro/USA

*WOMEN'S DOUBLES QF*
#1 Hsieh/Mertens (TPE/BEL) vs. #11 Gauff/Pegula (USA/USA)
#4 Siniakova/Townsend (CZE/USA) vs. #9 L.Kichenok/Ostapenko (UKR/LAT)
#7 Dolehide/Krawczyk (USA/USA) vs. Babos/N.Kichenok (HUN/UKR)
#8 Krejcikova/Siegemund (CZE/GER) vs. #2 Dabrowski/Routliffe (CAN/NZL)

*WHEELCHAIR WOMEN'S SINGLES 1st Rd.*
#1 Diede de Groot/NED vs. Momoko Ohtani/JPN
Manami Tanaka/JPN vs. Dana Mathewson/USA
#3 Jiske Griffioen/NED vs. Guo Luoyao /CHN
Wang Ziying/CHN vs. Maria Florencia Moreno/ARG
Angelica Bernal/COL vs. Li Xiaohui/CHN
Lizzy de Greef/NED vs. #4 Aniek Van Koot/NED
Kgothatso Montjane/RSA vs. Lucy Shuker/GBR
Zhu Zhenzhen/CHN vs. #2 Yui Kamiji/JPN

*WHEELCHAIR WOMEN'S DOUBLES QF*
#1 Kamiji/Montjane (JPN/RSA) vs. Mathewson/Tanaka (USA/JPN)
Bernal/Shuker (COL/GBR) vs. Li/Zhu (CHN/CHN)
Guo/Wang (CHN/CHN) vs. de Groot/Van Koot (NED/NED)
Moreno/Ohtani (ARG/JPN) vs. #2 de Groot/Griffioen (NED/NED)





...NICE MOVE (or not) FOR DAY 10... ON DAY 9:

The AELTC has a real headache now trying to get all the matches in, but the weather delays shouldn't have any impact on the Centre Court and Court 1 schedules for tomorrow. And yet, Day 10's lineup makes little sense, as the two women's QF lead off both court schedules, with the men's to follow accordingly.

So, you've got two women's QF matches scheduled for the day, featuring three former slam champions and a multi-time major semifinalist -- big names all, ensuring some interest across the board to watch both matches -- so you schedule *both* to be first-up on Court 1 and Centre Court, starting 30 minutes apart and having the certainty that both will be played (and likely finish) simultaneously?

Both are on courts with roofs, so there's no potential issue with one of the women's matches possibly not getting finished or the matches starting late in the day if one was scheduled to be played *after* what became a long men's match, meaning the first match winner has a tremendous edge when it comes to time to recuperate. The winners face off in a SF the following day, but there is no *significant* competitive disadvantage if one is finished a few hours earlier than the other (you just make that semi the *second* one played on Thursday).

Of course, the men's two QF matches tomorrow will be played simultaneously, as well, which really is no good for anyone in the --literally -- entire world who desires to watch both of *those*, either.

This sport can't help *but* casually be it's own worst enemy.











Here it is. Actually (shhh...), it's not too bad.
















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*MOST SLAM MD BEFORE FIRST MAJOR SF*
53 - Barbora Strycova, CZE (2019 Wimbledon)
52 - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, RUS (2021 Roland Garros)
46 - Elena Likhovtseva, RUS (2005 Roland Garros)
44 - Roberta Vinci, ITA (2015 U.S. Open)-RU
43 - DONNA VEKIC, CRO (2024 Wimbledon)
42 - Caroline Garcia, FRA (2022 U.S. Open)
42 - Julia Goerges, GER (2018 Wimbledon)
42 - Elena Vesnina, RUS (2016 Wimbledon)
42 - Nathalie Tauziat, FRA (1998 Wimbledon)-RU

*RECENT WIMBLEDON "Ms. OPPORTUNITY" WINNERS*
2015 Garbine Muguruza, ESP
2016 Elena Vesnina, RUS
2017 Magdalena Rybarikova, SVK
2018 Julia Goerges, GER
2019 Simona Halep, ROU and Alison Riske, USA
2021 Aryna Sabalenka, BLR and Kgothatso Montjane, RSA (WC)
2022 Harmony Tan, FRA
2023 Marketa Vondrousova, CZE
2024 Donna Vekic, CRO

*"FIRST SLAM..." FEATS IN 2020s*
=SF=
2020 AO - Sofia Kenin, USA (12th slam MD)
2020 US - Jennifer Brady, USA (13th)
2020 RG - Nadia Podoroska, ARG (2nd)
2020 RG - Iga Swiatek, POL (7th)
2021 AO - Karolina Muchova, CZE (9th)
2021 RG - Barbora Krejcikova, CZE (5th)
2021 RG - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, RUS (52nd)
2021 RG - Maria Sakkari, GRE (21st)
2021 RG - Tamara Zidansek, SLO (9th)
2021 WI - Aryna Sabalenka, BLR (15th)
2021 US - Leylah Fernandez, CAN (7th)
2021 US - Emma Raducanu, GBR (2nd)
2022 AO - none
2022 RG - Coco Gauff, USA (10th)
2022 RG - Dasha Kasatkina, RUS (26th)
2022 RG - Martina Trevisan, ITA (8th)
2022 WI - Ons Jabeur, TUN (21st)
2022 WI - Tatjana Maria, GER (35th)
2022 WI - Elena Rybakina, KAZ (12th)
2022 US - Caroline Garcia, FRA (42nd)
2023 AO - Magda Linette, POL (30th)
2023 RG - Beatriz Haddad Maia, BRA (12th)
2023 US - none
2024 AO - Dayana Yastremska, UKR (17th)
2024 AO - Zheng Qinwen, CHN (9th)
2024 RG - Mirra Andreeva, RUS (5th)
2024 RG - Jasmine Paolini, ITA (18th)
2024 WI - Donna Vekic, CRO (43rd)

*LOW-SEEDED WIMBLEDON SEMIFINALISTS - Open Era*
[unseeded]
1968 Ann Jones
1969 Rosie Casals
1970 Francoise Durr
1971 Judy Dalton
1983 Yvonne Vermaak
1989 Catarina Lindqvist
1994 Gigi Fernandez
1994 Lori McNeil
1996 Meredith McGrath
1997 Anna Kournikova
1998 Natasha Zvereva
1999 Alexandra Stevenson (Q)
1999 Mirjana Lucic
2000 Jelena Dokic
2008 Zheng Jie (WC)
2010 Petra Kvitova
2010 Tsvetana Pironkova
2011 Sabine Lisicki (WC)
2016 Elena Vesnina
2017 Magdalena Rybarikova
2019 Barbora Strycova
2022 Tatjana Maria
2023 Marketa Vondrousova [won title]
2023 Elina Svitolina (WC)
2024 Donna Vekic
[seeds]
#25 - Angelique Kerber, 2021
#25 - Serena Williams, 2018 (RU)
#23 - Lucie Safarova, 2014
#23 - Sabine Lisicki, 2013 (RU)
#23 - Venus Williams, 2007 (W)
#21 - Vera Zvonareva, 2010 (RU)
#20 - Garbine Muguruza, 2015 (RU)
#20 - Kirsten Flipkens, 2013
#18 - Marion Bartoli, 2007 (RU)
#17 - Elena Rybakina, 2022 (W)
#16 - Simona Halep, 2022
#16 - Nathalie Tauziat, 1998 (RU)
#16 - Kathy Rinaldi, 1985
#15 - Marion Bartoli, 2013 (W)
--
TO PLAY QF: #21 Svitolina, #31 Krejcikova

*WTA "CAREER QF SLAM" - active*
[with slam at which completed]
Azarenka - 2012 US (28th)
Halep - 2015 US (22nd)
Jabeur - 2023 RG (24th)
Kanepi - 2022 AO (53rd)
Kerber - 2016 AO (33rd)
Keys - 2018 RG (23rd)
KREJCIKOVA - 2024 WI (18th)
Kvitova - 2015 US (30th)
Muchova - 2023 US (19th)
Ostapenko - 2023 US (31st)
Pavlyuchenkova - 2017 AO (37th)
Pegula - 2023 WI (19th)
Ka.Pliskova - 2021 WI (36th)
Sabalenka - 2023 RG (21st)
Stephens - 2018 RG (25th)
Svitolina - 2019 US (29th)
Swiatek - 2023 WI (18th)
V.Williams - 1998 WI (6th)
Zvonareva - 2010 US (31st)




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TOP QUALIFIER: Katie Volynets/USA
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): #14 Dasha Kasatkina/RUS
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): x
TOP LATE-ROUND (SF-F): x
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q2 -Robin Montgomery/USA def. #10 Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS 7-6(0)/6-7(4)/7-6(10-4) - no breaks in 36 games, only 5 BP face; Montgomery w/ 20 aces; combined for 132 winners (67/65)
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): 2nd Rd. - #18 Marta Kostyuk/UKR def. Dasha Saville/AUS 4-6/7-6(2)/6-4 - Saville served for match three times in 2nd set, had a MP; Kostyuk break on BP #8 of game to force TB; Kostyuk wins on MP #5 in 3rd set
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): x
TOP LATE-RD. MATCH (SF-F/Jr.-WC): x
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: Varvara Gracheva/FRA (def. Lesia Tsurenko/UKR)
FIRST SEED OUT: #8 Zheng Qinwen/CHN (1st Rd. to Sun/NZL) (after #22 Alexandrova/RUS, #3 Sabalenka/BLR and #16 Azarenka/BLR withdrew)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: Day 1: Erika Andreeva/RUS, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro/ESP, Sonay Kartal/GBR, Robin Montgomery/USA, Yuliia Starodubtseva/UKR, Lulu Sun/NZL, Anca Todoni/ROU
UPSET QUEENS: Spain
REVELATION LADIES: Great Britain
NATION OF POOR SOULS: ROU (1-5 1st Rd.; #29 Cirstea out, Bogdan 2 MP, no Halep)
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: Lulu Sun/NZL (in QF)
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: Emma Raducanu/GBR (4th Rd.)
PROTECTED RANKING: Paula Badosa/ESP (4r), Bianca Andreescu/CAN (3r)
LUCKY LOSER WINNERS: Erika Andreeva/RUS (2nd)
LAST BRIT STANDING: Emma Raducanu (4th Rd.)
Ms. OPPORTUNITY: Donna Vekic/CRO
IT "Kiwi": Lulu Sun/NZL
COMEBACK PLAYER: Paula Badosa/ESP
CRASH & BURN: #6 Marketa Vondrousova/CZE (1st Rd. to Bouzas Maneiro/ESP; first defending champ out 1r since 1994 Graf loss vs. McNeil; second in Open era)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF LONDON: #18 Marta Kostyuk/UKR (2nd Rd.- down 5-2 vs. Saville in 3rd, who served for win three times and held MP; in '24 slams has won from MP down at AO/WI, and 4-0 down in 3rd at RG)
DOUBLES STAR: x
VETERAN PLAYER (KIMIKO CUP): Nominees: Svitolina, (doubles)
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: x
SPIRIT OF JANA (NOVOTNA) HONOREE: Barbora Krejcikova/CZE (completes "Career QF Slam" at major won by former coach/mentor)






All for Day 9. More tomorrow.
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