Well, another Fed Cup weekend is here. So it's time to nitpick rosters, the "gut instinct" of captains, and consider all the soon-to-happen moments upon which national fates will rest.
Let's have a closer look at the semifinals and playoff ties to be contested...
*SEMIFINALS*
United States at France (Aux-en-Provence, FRA - RCI)
USA: Stephens,Keys,Vandeweghe,Mattek-Sands (Capt: Kathy Rinaldi)
FRA: Mladenovic,Parmentier,Hesse (Capt: Yannick Noah)...CoCo Vandeweghe, as is her style, is confident as the Bannerettes head into France seeking back-to-back appearances in the FC final for the first time since 2009-10 (
the last consecutive U.S. titles came in 1999-00). But should she be? This tie comes down to a battle between surface/site vs. depth. The Pastries are loaded up on the former, while Kathy Rinaldi's bunch can rightfully boast of a huge advantage when it comes to the ladder. 11-2 vs. France in Fed Cup play, though the French won in the last encounter in 2014 (
w/ Caroline Garcia having a hand in all three points during the French team's "former life"), the U.S. has numerous options in singles, though none are "sure things." Clay isn't Vandeweghe's best surface, but she's been clutch for Rinaldi, as well as actually quite good on the surface (3-1 ws/3-1 wd) for Team USA. Keys reached the semis in Charleston two weeks ago, while Stephens is probably the most reliable on clay of the three singles players on the roster. Still in her post-U.S. Open trance, Sloane nearly single-handedly brought on the Fall of the House of Rinaldi in last year's final with her struggling-with-the-pressure 0-2 performance vs. Belarus. But Future Sloane returned in Miami. Still, she hasn't played a match on clay since Roland Garros '16. French Captain Yannick Noah has an easy hand to play:
straight Kiki. If France is going to reach a second FC final in three years, Mladenovic (8-6 ws/10-2 wd) will likely have to be part of all three wins this weekend, just as she was in February against Belgium. She was Backspin's overall weekend "MVP" for her 3-for-3, jump-on-my-back-and-I'll-bring-us-all-home performance. Her key match three months ago was winning a head-to-head contest with AO semifinalist Elise Mertens, allowing her deciding doubles win with Amandine Hesse to even be possible. With a singles win by another French player (
Pauline Parmentier -- LOL, that had *better* not happen, or this weekend's FC goat -- and not G.O.A.T. -- will be wearing stars with her red, white and blue colors) is as close to a "no hope" scenario as any tie played outside of Wollongong, Mladenovic again has zero margin for error, and this time she'll have to knock off a combination of *two* players from a group that includes a slam winner, slam finalist and two-time slam semifinalist, *then* also win in doubles vs. 7-time slam title winner Bethanie Mattek-Sands (
probably w/ CoCo) with everything on the line. Even with the crowd on their side, the Pastries wouldn't likely be the favorites in that one.
PICK: USA def. FRA 3-2...this was the best match-up that the Bannerettes, who were fortunate to avoid the Czech "A"-team in last year's semis, could have hoped for this time around. The Czechs or Germans might be favored against the U.S. if they were on the opposing sideline. If one of the Bannerette singles players can knock off Mladenovic this one will be wrapped up early, but it's safe to assume (
but hardly a certainty) that this could go to the doubles. Rinaldi was smart to include the back-from-injury BMS as the veteran/doubles specialist on this roster rather than going with another singles player, something that former captain Mary Joe Fernandez rarely had the forethought to pull off during her time at the helm. It gives the U.S. a final, last ditch chance to lock away a sixth consecutive win (
and keep Rinaldi's record spotless at 4-0) if no one can get a win over Kiki in singles. With three opportunities to get this done, it's hard to imagine an 0-for-3 strikeout scenario playing out.
Czech Republic at Germany (Stuttgart, GER - RCI)
CZE: Kvitova,Ka.Pliskova,Strycova,Siniakova (Capt: Petr Pala)
GER: Goerges,Kerber,Maria,Groenefeld (Capt: Jans Gerlach)
...are the Czechs, playing in their tenth straight semi and looking to advance to a sixth final in eight years (
they're 5-0 in championship ties during the stretch), vulnerable? (Pause.) Well, I wasn't suddenly struck by lightning for even suggesting such a thing, so let's run with it. Since 2011, the Maidens have been forced to the deciding doubles on eight occasions, including in three straight road ties during their last title run in '16. They've gone 7-1. The loss came in last year's semi vs. the U.S. without the usual star-stubbed collection of talent from top to bottom being at the hands of Petr Pala. A roster that would be considered the Czech "A"-team is 7-0 in deciding doubles matches during this run of dominance. The last time such a squad lost at all came in a 2013 SF vs. Italy (3-1). But rarely have they played a German squad like this one. Germany, with new Captain Jans Gerlach, perfectly played the "Cinderella" role in February vs. defending finalist Belarus, with the likes of Tatjana Maria (
getting her first FC wins in seven years) taking the lead role, then joining with longtime roster member Anna-Lena Groenefeld in doubles for a 3-2 win. THIS German team is loaded, sporting two Top 12 players, Julia Goerges and Angelique Kerber, as well as the returning Maria and ALG. That's a formidable group, playing at home (
though CZE is 9-2 in road ties since '11), on a clay surface that doesn't play into the favor of the top two Maidens (Top 10ers Petra Kvitova and Karolina Pliskova). Kvitova, though she's gone 2-0 vs. Goerges in '18, has gone just 2-3 since her career-best 14-match winning streak earlier this season, which included her turning around her surprising FC slump (
she went 0-4 in' 16) with a 2-0 mark in February vs. Switzerland. While Kvitova's match-up with Kerber will be this tie's headline-grabber, the one against Goerges may be the key match. While Kvitova leads 4-1 in their head-to-head, three of the matches have gone three sets, including a 10-8 3rd in FC play claimed by the Czech in 2012. 25-8 in FC play on hard court and carpet surfaces, Petra is just 3-2 on clay. Meanwhile, Pliskova, consistently good but unspectacular in '18, has never played a FC match on the surface. Still, the Czech Republic is 7-1 vs. Germany, having nearly always "found a way" (
def. GER in the '14 final) for almost every one of the last seven Fed Cup seasons.
PICK: GER def. CZE 3-2...BLASPHEMY!!!!!!
I'm not sure of the scenario that may play out, but I'm going with the end result. (
Don't rule out a Strycova star-turn here, though, possibly in a two-win Sunday performance to pull the Czech hopes away from the ledge and carry the squad to another final.) That's not a hedge, by the way, just an "alternate" possibility.
*WORLD GROUP PLAYOFFS*
Slovakia at Belarus (Minsk, BLR - HCI)
SVK: AK.Schmiedlova,Kuzmova,Cepelova,Sramkova (Capt: Matej Liptak)
BLR: Sasnovich,Sabalenka,Lapko,Marozava (Capt: Tatiana Poutchek)
...last weekend's WTA result turned up the intrigue in this one, though the change in surface from the tour's red clay to an indoor hard court would seem to boost '17 finalist Belarus' possibilities of returning to the World Group for '19. No matter how hard Aryna Sabalenka tried to save the day in February, Belarus still fell hard vs. a Cinderella German team led by a player who hadn't posted a Fed Cup win since 2011 (Tatjana Maria) and another (Antonia Lottner) making her debut. In the tie-turning moment, Lottner shockingly took down '17 FC heroine Aliaksandra Sasnovich. The Belarusians never really recovered, and ultimately lost in the deciding doubles. In their fifth straight home tie, Belarus is led by new/old captain, Tatiana Poutchek. After having the role from 2012-15, during which the team won ten of fourteen ties to get into position for the 2016-17 run under Eduard Dubrov, Poutchek is back to try to add more successful entries to her FC resume. As a player, she leads the nation in ties (45), total wins (37), doubles wins (28) and years on the team (15). Last week, on clay, Sabalenka reached the Lugano final, while she and Vera Lapko (
who pushed Maria to three sets in February) were also the doubles runners-up. That experience together could prove valuable if things go to the doubles. Sasnovich will need to rebound for that to happen, though. The Slovaks notched an historic first ever win over Russia three months ago, with Viktoria Kuzmova's maiden career FC victory providing the clinching point. She's back, though it's teammate Anna Karolina Schmiedlova who'll have the most eyes on her. AKS ended her three-year title drought last week in Bogota, winning the crown on the clay. If this one had been played on the dirt, last week's momentum-driven results might provide some real insight into what will happen in Minsk. As it is, though, they could turn out to mean absolutely nothing.
PICK: BLR def. SVK 3-1...one of the four (of 10 in WG) FC ties on hard court this weekend, the surface (and on-site support) seems to point to Belarus getting back in the game for 2019. Still waiting for Vika Azarenka's return, if it finally comes next season, a win here might just propel BLR back into another final.
Switzerland at Romania (Cluj-Napoca, ROU - RCI)
SUI: Bacsinszky,Golubic,Teichmann,Schnyder (Capt: Heinz Gunthardt)
ROU: Halep,Begu,Cirstea,Buzarnescu (Capt: Florin Segarceanu)
...in front of the oh-so-supportive Romanian crowds, #1 Simona Halep makes her '18 Fed Cup *and* clay court debut. While her Melbourne injuries prevented her from joining her teammates on the court in February's win over Canada, she was courtside in her role as team leader, cheering everyone on. 14-5 in FC play, Halep heads a veteran team vs. the Swiss, with everyone --
Cirstea (11), Begu (7) and Buzarnescu (2, though this is her first tie since '12) -- having notched singles wins for the national team. The Swarmettes are looking to return to FC title contention in '19, having slipped back after falling in the deciding doubles vs. CZE in the 2016 1st Round. After losing three straight ties, Romania seeks a third straight win here to get back into the Top 8. While the Romanians are preparing for another FC run, one wonders if the Swiss missed *their* chance. With Martina Hingis retired, and Belinda Bencic injured *again*, the "dream team" roster potential of the last two seasons may be finished for good (
even junior Swiss star Rebeka Masarova is gone, now representing ESP). With the "Big 4" of Bacsinszky, Bencic, Hingis and Viktorija Golubic (
2-0 vs. the Czechs in the '16), Switzerland reached back-to-back semifinals in 2016-17, losing to CZE in the deciding doubles and then Belarus a year ago (
though Bencic wasn't available in singles that weekend). Captain Heinz Gunthardt had to reach back into history to grab Patty Schnyder (
at 39, the oldest roster player in FC this week) to just fill the #4 spot on the squad behind Bacsinszky (20-16/8-5,
but 0-3 in '18 and without a singles win of any kind since last year's Wimbledon after a career-threatening hand injury), Golubic and Jill Teichmann.
PICK: ROU def. SUI 4-1...two years ago this could have been for a spot in the finals. Now, only one will get another chance to aim for a maiden FC title next season. Romania seems far more equipped to dream big.
Netherlands at Australia (Wollongong, AUS - HCI)
NED: Kerkhove,Lemoine,Schuurs,de Vroome (Capt: Paul Haarhuis)
AUS: Barty,Gavrilova,Stosur,Aiava (Capt: Alicia Molik)...sometimes the notion of Australia playing at home would be enough to make you nervous.
But not here. This tie is unequivocally the biggest mistmatch on the board this weekend. Without their usual FC roster making the trek Down Under for this tie, the Dutch (
the '16 semifinalists) have constructed a roster that has a "grand total" of ZERO career singles victories in Fed Cup play. Two players are making their debuts for the national team, while Lesley Kherkove (3-0 doubles) and Demi Schuurs (2-0 doubles) "lead" the team vs. an Aussie team headed up by Ash Barty. In February, Barty joined Kiki Mladenovic as the only players in WG play to have a hand in all three of her team's points. With Barty at the top of the roster, for as long as she commits, this is a different era for Australian Fed Cup. Finally, the women have the fiery equivalent to what Lleyton Hewitt was for AUS Davis Cup. Veteran Sam Stosur is back. While her FC numbers (29-17 s/7-0 d) are impressive, few top players make you as nervous in pressure situations on home soil as she. Now that she doesn't have to be the lead runner, much of that pressure may be off. Dasha Gavrilova has been excitable, but also sometimes shaky, in her short FC career for Australia. She went 0-2 in February's 3-2 win over Ukraine. But she didn't lose to the likes of Svitolina and/or Tsurenko, it was to 16-year old Marta Kostyuk (in her FC debut) and Nadia Kichenok. She can't really be relied upon. Barty can be, though. 'Nuff said.
PICK: AUS def. NED 4-0...as it turned out, Casey Dellacqua's final match *was* in Fed Cup play, but it *would* have been nice had she ended it here, likely topping off a dominant, feel-good weekend for Aussie tennis with a final victory lap win over the Dutch. Oh, well.
Belgium at Italy (Genoa, ITA - RCO)
BEL: Mertens,Van Uytvanck,Flipkens,Bonaventure (Capt: Ivo Van Aken)
ITA: Errani,Paolini,Chiesa,Pieri (Capt: Tathiana Garbin)...as soon as you think they're out, the Italians pull themselves back in. The funeral dirge has been prepared to play for a while now for the Italian Fed Cup team, now a shadow of its former dominant self, with just one of the original Quartet still in the mix.
But it's not as easy to put down Team Italia as it appeared as if it might be sometime last year. Still, fresh off a win over Spain in February in which Sara Errani was strong and newcomer Deborah Chiesa pulled off the sort of gutsy win (
saving MP vs. Lara Arruabarrena to clinch) that used to be common for the green-white-and-red, Italy needs yet another win to avoid falling into World Group II in 2019. Standing in their way are the Belgians, the very definition of a team in flux,
at least at the top. After losing to the underwomaned French team in February, Captain Dominique Monami was dumped by the Belgian Federation. Replacing her, but only for this one tie, is Ivo Van Aken, the 66-year-old technical director and top sport coordinator of Tennis Vlaanderen. He's stated that he only agreed to lead the team if it was for this one tie, and has stated the need for the Federation to find a "long-term solution." (
Hmmm, it's too bad Belgium doesn't have any Hall of Fame former players to take a shot at luring... oh, wait.) Thing is, Belgium's FC prospects look better now than they have since the days of Kim & Justine. Elise Mertens, fresh off claiming singles and doubles (w/ fellow Waffle and teammate Kirsten Flipkens) titles on clay in Lugano, could be a Top 10 player by year's end. Alison Van Uytvanck has won a tour title this year, as well. This might not be a team that could challenge for a title, but it could be a consistent World Group competitor for a few years, with the potential for a one-year run in any given year should Mertens continue to climb the WTA ladder at the rate she has over the past year. She lost the big singles match vs. Kiki Mladenovic on the road vs. France three months ago, and now she'll likely need to correct that misstep here vs. Errani. Again, it's likely the key to victory. Belgium would have the edge should things go to the doubles, but getting there isn't a given now that Chiesa has proven capable of winning big in front of a home crowd.
PICK: BEL def. ITA 3-2...Italy is 7-0 vs. Belgium in FC play, so this would be another case of history being overturned. It's probably time (overdue) for Italy to begin to fall away. But *someone* has said that before and been wrong. It could happen again, too.
But, before the first ball is struck, I'll still go with the "most likely" outcome.
*WORLD GROUP II PLAYOFFS*
Latvia at Russia (Khanty-Mansiysk, RUS - RCI)
LAT: Ostapenko,Sevastova,Marcinkevica,Vismane (Capt: Andis Juska)
RUS: Pavlyuchenkova,Makarova,Vesnina,Vikhlyantseva (Capt: Igor Andreev)...the Czarina Era is over.
Don't shed a tear, though. As wonderful as she was as a player, Anastasia Myskina's captaincy of the Russian team in the aftermath of swirling controversy regarding the Russian Tennis Federation's relationship with the nation's WTA players a few years ago often left much to be desired on FC game days. Two weeks ago, after one too many what-is-she-thinking? decisions (
or, ahem, for "family reasons"), it was announced that Myskina was out as the Hordette captain, and Igor Andreev was in. Whether it will make a difference in this tie is debatable. Three months after losing for the first time to Slovakia, the Russian women hope to avoid losing for the first time to Latvia, which is trying to win a fifth straight tie and reach World Group II for the first time. It wasn't easy for Latvia to get here, as Alona Ostapenko and Anastasija Sevstova both suffered singles losses in Europe/Africa zone play in February and were forced to combine to win a pair of deciding doubles matches to save the day, including in the Promotional Playoff against Serbia. Meanwhile, Russia is trying to avoid falling into zone play in '19 for the first time since 1997. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (
Myskina's misplaced faith in *her* played a large part in her demise) is here again, lugging along her 4-8 FC singles record and 1-7 mark since 2012. Will Andreev make the same mistake as Myskina and depend on her to carry Russia's hope on her shoulders in pressure situations? If so, might there be a *third* Russian captain in three ties come next February? He'd be better off to hang the team's fate on the likes of Ekaterina Makrarova, Elena Vesnina or Natalia Viklyantseva (
notched a singles win in February loss to SVK). If things go to the doubles, Makarova/Vesnina could be called upon to play their first FC match together since the 2013 semifinals. Overall, they're 3-0 as a duo, with their first match coming a dull decade ago in 2008.
PICK: LAT def. RUS 3-1...Sevastova aside, as Latvian Thunder goes in this tie, so goes that of the Latvians. Ostapenko's clay court trek toward her attempt to defend her Roland Garros title two months from now begins this weekend.
One would think she'll want to get rolling early.
Paraguay at Spain (Cartagena, ESP - RCO)
PAR: Cepede Royg,M.Gonzalez,Giangreco Campiz,Escauriza (Capt: Ramon Delgado)
ESP: Muguruza,Suarez-Navarro,Arruabarrena,Martinez-Sanchez (Capt: Anabel Medina-Garrigues)...for the first time since 2016, Garbine Muguruza and Carla Suarez-Navarro are side-by-side representing Spain. The top two ranked Spanish players went undefeated in singles that year, sweeping both Serbia and Italy by 4-0 score. Without both in attendance, Spain has gone on to lose three straight ties. Finally, though, new(ish) ESP Captain Anabel Medina-Garrigues will get the benefit against a game, though likely overmatched, Paraguayan squad looking to secure a World Group II spot in '19 for the first time in its history. The team is led by longtime FC stalwart Veronica Cepede Royg (32-10 s/19-10 dd), whose epic Promotional Playoff win over Beatriz Haddad in Americas zone play made this third attempt to reach the next level of FC play possible, after having lost in similar situations in 1995 and 2015. VCR is backed up by Montserrat Gonzalez (19-12/19-3). Still, if Muguruza (7-1) and CSN (12-8) are and/or remain fully healthy, the Spanish should roll. Third singles option Lara Arruabarrena, the Bogota runner-up last weekend, is riding a four-match FC losing streak (
including a nightmare 0-2 mark vs. Italy in February) after going 2-0 in 2015 vs. Argentina in her FC debut.
PICK: ESP def. PAR 4-0...AMG's Mauresmo-like whispering abilities would be interesting to watch if Muguruza and CSN were a consistent FC combo, possibly joined by 21-year old Sara Sorribes Tormo and, in the near future, by new ESP player (ex-SUI) Rebeka Masarova. The 18-year old the '16 RG junior champ and '17 AO girls runner-up is currently in the middle of rehabbing an knee injury incurred when she slipped on a wet court during a January practice. If the Fed Cup format changes to a single site event in the next season or two, Spain may benefit as much or more than any other contending nation.
Great Britain at Japan (Miki, JPN - HCI)
GBR: Konta,Watson,A.Smith,Taylor (Capt: Anne Keothavong)
JPN: Osaka,Nara,Kato,Ninomiya (Capt: Toshihisa Tsuchihashi)...for the first time since her career-changing run in Indian Wells, Naomi Osaka will play tennis in Japan. She'll slide into the #1 singles slot (
February #2 Nao Hibino is out) following Japan's great, four-contributing-members-strong teamwork in Asia/Oceania action three months ago. Osaka is 4-0 in her FC singles career, but her matches this weekend will be her first outside of zone play. She's got back-up, as Kurumi Nara went undefeated in February (
and should have won the Fed Cup Heart Award for her efforts, losing out to the more popular Yulia Putintseva in truly dumb fan voting for the honor more than a month after the matches were played), and Miyu Kato/Makoto Ninomiya won a deciding doubles match over Kazakhstan to get Japan into this tie. The Brits, meanwhile, are trying to end a 25-year stretch of being excluded from the Fed Cup's Top 16 teams. A win here to reach the '19 World Group II would do the trick. Johanna Konta has had a truly disappointing '18 season, but she's been golden of late in FC play. 2-0 in February, she's won four straight singles matches. Heather Watson, too, has been a good team player, going 20-7 in singles (3 con. wins) and 8-2 in doubles for her career.
PICK: JPN def. GBR 3-2...if Konta can knock off Osaka, the Brits might be able to take this tie before it gets to the deciding doubles. If not, Kato/Ninomiya will get the chance to close out another tie. This one could come down to the wire, with some tense 3rd set action deciding the fate of both nations.
Ukraine at Canada (Montreal, CAN - HCI)
UKR: Tsurenko,K.Bondarenko,Savchuk (Capt: Mikhail Filima)
CAN: Bouchard,Abanda,Andreescu,Dabrowski (Capt: Sylvain Bruneau)...oh, boy.
Here we go again? The last time Genie Bouchard showed up for a Fed Cup tie in Montreal, she uttered the "I'll pass" line when Alexandra Dulgheru attempted to shake her hand in a pre-tie press event, leading to a disastrous weekend that saw her go 0-2, including a loss to a fired-up Dulgheru, who promptly advanced down a line of her Romanian teammates, mocking Bouchard by pulling a "fake handshake" with each and every one. That weekend was precisely the moment that first exposed the "dark side" of the sudden star who'd been pumped up by marketers as the "next Kournikova/Sharapova" following her breakout '14 season. Of course, much has gone wrong for Bouchard since then, including a lockerroom concussion and protracted (
and finally settled) legal battle with the USTA, many childish and ill-informed interviews, struggles to keep sponsers, and a so far bottomless fall down the rankings. In the immediate aftermath of her '14 AO semifinal, the newly-annointed Bouchard played a pair of FC ties in Montreal, going 4-0 in singles. Since then, though, she's gone just 3-7 in matches on Canadian soil. As it's difficult to pass over, Bouchard's presence on this roster will likely overshadow the rest of the story: that Canada's is the youngest roster in action this weekend, with Franckie Abanda (
5-4, with FC wins over the likes of Shvedova, Putintseva, Cepelova and Begu, as well as three-setters vs. Cibulkova, Sasnovich and Dulgheru) and Bianca Andreescu (
5-2 s/2-0 d, and coming off a pair of ITF singles finals in recent weeks) having been solid performers in their young FC careers. Captain Sylvain Bruneau would probably be wise to lean on them, if nothing else than for the team's future. But with Bouchard, somehow still the highest-ranked Canadian (
though likely not for long once her points for a SF in Madrid fall off this spring, as she's gone just 7-17 since that run), on board, she could be given the opporutnity to take on two singles matches on the weekend.
Unless something suddenly "clicks," that could take down the entire team. Still, Ukraine is playing shorthanded in Montreal. The team was listed as having just a three-player roster at mid-week (
might ITF achiever Anhelina Kalinia, who has played exclusively in North America this season, be a late option to fill out the roster?). Elina Svitolina is absent, while teenagers Marta Kostyuk and Dayana Yastremska are scheduled for Stuttgart qualifying. It leaves Acapulco champ Lesia Tsurenko in the key role, but she recently was forced to retire in Monterrey. If she can't make it through the weekend, veteran Kateryna Bondarenko might have to take up the singles slack. Olga Savchuk is there, too, but likely just for doubles. Needless to say, there's much intrigue in this one, as very little is set in stone.
PICK: CAN def. UKR 3-2...this is a case of me seeing a sensible scenario playing out in Montreal, with Bruneau handing the tie over to the youngsters, who have just enough success to get things to the deciding doubles, where Gaby Dabrowski (
two MX slams and four WD titles since last spring) and maybe Bouchard might combine to produce the final point in a win for the hosts. We'll see how long that possibly hangs on as a possible reality.
*ZONE PLAY*
Europe/Africa II (Athens, Greece - RCO)
Europe/Africa III (Tunis, Tunisia & Ulcinj, Montenegro - RCO)Zone play has been going on at various sites the last few days, with mostly lower-level players/teams.
Names to watch: the host nation teams sporting the best players in action in zone play --
Tunisia's Ons Jabeur and Montenegro's Danka Kovinic -- and Dane Clara Tauson, the youngest player in action this weekend at just under 15 years and 4 months of age.
Of course, I'll have a full wrap-up of the entire Fed Cup event in the regular weekly post following all the weekend action, as well as the full "Fed Cup Captain Threat Level Chart."
All for now.
